Friday, July 29, 2016

How big a bounce will Hillary get?

It’s called the “bounce,” the impact that the presidential nominating conventions have on the public perceptions of the candidates with fantasies of getting to live in the White House for a few years.
CLINTON: Bigger bounce than Trump coming up?
The conventions, both Democratic and Republican, are designed to bolster the public view of the presidential candidates. It always turns out that the first polls done right after the conventions show an increase in support.

HECK, THE POLLS done this week show that Donald Trump is in the lead over Hillary Clinton in terms of voter support. The size of his lead varies depending on which poll one studies – but one commissioned by the Los Angeles Times shows Trump with a 7 percent lead over Hillary.

Of course, it still shows him with only 47 percent support, meaning a majority of people likely to vote would still rather have somebody else. It’s just that the Green and Libertarian candidates are infringing just enough in the public eye to take potential votes from Clinton.

Yet as one who’d just as soon see Trump’s campaign drop dead come Election Day, I can’t say I get too concerned about this factor. For it is one that was fully expected by anybody with political awareness.

There’s also the fact that “bounce” is truly a bipartisan quality. Hillary Clinton is having her own nominating convention this week, and it is likely that by mid-week of early August, we’re going to get polls showing Clinton back in the lead.

JUST AS SO many polls have been indicating in recent months.

Which means that no one is really changing their mind. They’re still basing their choice on who they hate the most! This is still an election cycle that will center around voter turnout.

There are enough types of people who despise the notion of “President Donald John Trump” being anywhere near the District of Columbia – and not just because we fear he’d want to move the executive branch of government into another of his tacky buildings named after himself.

In theory, there ought not be a chance that Trump could actually prevail. Except that there’s always the chance of political apathy setting in so that people decide it’s not worth their time to bother casting a ballot.

WHICH COULD RESULT in the hard-core elements of our society who really want a Trump presidency (because they think he’ll exclude everybody not exactly like themselves) being a large-enough group to actually prevail.

I’ve met my share of people in recent weeks who are convinced this is the exact phenomenon that will occur in Election ’16. Personally, I’m not sure what to think.

Other than that people looking for such scenarios are most likely trying to find an excuse for blame on somebody else if Hillary Clinton does not achieve electoral victory.

I’d have to say that’s a waste of time. This will be an election where Clinton needs to convince a majority of people of the benefits she could bring to our society with her selection as president.

IF SHE CAN’T do that, then perhaps she deserves to lose and would have no one to blame but herself.

Because with all those elements lined up to knock down Trump (the Latino vote against him is likely to be so overwhelming that it will make Mitt Romney of 2012 appear to be an Honorary Hispanic by comparison), we’re going to see how all those people who spent a week in Cleveland chanting “Lock Her Up!” are truly individuals with far too much free time on their hands.

We’ll see how high the ball bounces in Hillary’s favor and how long she can hold on to such momentum.

And perhaps then we’ll begin speculation on whether Trump will use his money to try to create his own politically-motivated foundation – one that will treat him as “el Supremo” and go out of its way to appease his massive ego in a way that the American people would never dream of doing so.


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