Who will prevail March 20, Nov. 6? How long ‘til we speculate about ’19?

We’re now in the new year, and the election cycles that seem to have been ongoing forever have actually now begun.

Will it be Rauner who fades into obscurity ...

Yet as far as who’s going to prevail come the March 20 primary, along with the general election come Nov. 6? That’s a crapshoot. I’m sure everybody amongst the occupants of political geekdom is convinced their side will prevail.

BECAUSE HOW COULD anybody with any common sense possibly side with the opposition? Are they mad!!!

... or will Pritzker wind up ultimate '18 failure

There are those who are convinced that the public’s regard for Donald Trump is so low that they will cast their ballots in ways meant to take out their hostility for the president on anybody perceived to be his ally.

Then again, the people who were inclined to support Trump back when he won the presidency in 2016 are most likely enjoying the fact that the people who oppose Trump are so infuriated by his presence. That thought may motivate them to turn out in great numbers to vote so as to ensure the Trump critics don’t make any political gains.

For the record, the Gallup Organization had Trump at a 40 percent approval rating as of Sunday – which is fairly stable for him. A solid majority of our society (or at least those who were actually contacted by Gallup) does not think much of this Age of Trump in which our society is now engaged.

Trump enjoys thought '18 will be all about him

WHICH MAY BE why Gov. Bruce Rauner is engaged in a battle royale for his own political fate – he desperately wants to distance himself from Trump’s most nonsensical acts.

Yet the fact that he won’t develop a tight bond with the president is considered one of the reasons why the conservative element of Illinois’ population is speaking out against him, and why the Republican primary campaign of Jeanne Ives isn’t being totally dismissed.

Could Rauner wind up being the equivalent of Dan Walker – that 1970’s era governor who in 1976 couldn’t even win his party’s nomination for re-election? Yes, then-Mayor Richard J. Daley despised Walker to the point where he backed -then Secretary of State Michael J. Howlett against him.

One lesson to Republican partisans who are inclined to back Ives/dump Rauner (however they choose to view it); the split amongst Democrats that year resulted in James R. Thompson winning the general election – and was the beginning of a 26-year run of Republican governors.

Will Rauner be compared to '76 Walker?

WHICH MEANS THE GOP may be wary of provoking a similar streak against themselves and may wind up holding their noses in voting for Bruce.

What actually makes me not totally disregard the chances of a second term of “Gov. Rauner” is the fact that I question the Democratic candidates. Thus far, it seems J.B, Pritzker of the incredibly-wealthy and politically-connected Pritzker family is the favorite to win the nomination come March.

But I don’t get any sense that his candidacy is beloved by anybody. It seems more a matter of people accepting the inevitability of a Pritzker win, rather than thinking he has any ideas that capture their fancy.

This could really wind up being the year that two self-funding billionaires blow their family fortunes to win election to a post that pays a salary of just over $177,000 – along with access to a mansion in Springfield that (by all accounts) is in serious need of repair.

IT MAY WIND up being that whichever candidate winds up taking the oath of office as Illinois governor come January 2019 will be taking on a massive headache, with the financial compensation hardly seeming worth the hassle.

Then again, it’s all about the ego for some people. Perhaps it is rewarding, in and of itself, to be able to walk around calling oneself “governor” and occasionally have commentaries written about speculation that you could someday become president.

Once Rauner/Pritzker is history, it'll be all about Rahm

Then again, it’s not like Trump ever went through the hassle of running for a government post to gain experience for a presidential run – and an experience that likely has three years remaining.

2018 has arrived, and about the only thing we can say for certain is that a year from now, either Pritzker or Rauner will be history. That, and we’ll be asked almost immediately whether we want Rahm Emanuel for a third term as the city’s “Man on Five.”

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