Are Dems really a shoo-in for guv?

“Here’s the reality: While the state faces some unique structural economic challenges that will be a drag on any Democrat, the party does not need a billionaire to win this year’s gubernatorial election. In fact, they probably just need somebody with a pulse who isn’t a criminal or a serial sexual harasser.”
-- David Faris, associate professor of political science, Roosevelt University.

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PRITZKER: Should he be Dem favorite?

If only life (and electoral politics) were that simple!

David Faris came up with an analysis published this week in The Week where he is critical of the establishment Democratic Party line of thought that J.B. Pritzker, whose family has substantial-enough wealth that he can afford to pay for his own campaign to run for governor, ought to be the front-runner for the March 20 election.

FARIS ACTUALLY TOUTS the campaign for governor of state Sen. Daniel Biss, D-Evanston. He’s the one-time mathematics professor-turned-legislator who goes out of his way to espouse progressive thought. Whether he’s capable of turning any of it into public policy remains to be seen.

While Pritzker does have some progressive leanings, much of his campaign rhetoric focuses on the need to dump Bruce Rauner – and show how his Republican affiliation puts him in line with President Donald J. Trump.

RAUNER: Are his chances of  victory already nil?

Of whom many political observers are convinced will be the ultimate millstone upon every single political candidate who runs this year under the GOP label.

Faris believes that Pritzker, because he’s immensely wealthy and has the potential to pay his own way for a gubernatorial campaign, is actually no better than Rauner himself.

RAUNER, OF COURSE, being the man who beat Gov. Pat Quinn in 2014 with a self-funded campaign, and has already come up with some $50 million of his own money to pay for his 2018 bid – with much of that intended for use to support legislators who theoretically would be Rauner allies.

Because the reason that Rauner has been unable to achieve any of his anti-organized labor initiatives that (in his mind) were the reason he wanted to become Illinois governor in the first place, was a Democratic Party-dominated state Legislature that thwarted him at every turn.

TRUMP: Rauner's millstone come Nov. 6?

Many of those Dems feel comfortable knowing they won’t be grossly outspent by the Rauner machine during this year’s election cycle.

Which is why someone who has never held political office (although his sister, Penny, was Commerce secretary under then-President Barack Obama) comes across at this early date as the favorite to win the gubernatorial nomination.

I’LL BE THE first to admit Rauner has his political problems. Democrats already upset with Trump’s presidential presence enough to turn out to vote also are displeased enough with Rauner (those two years without a state budget) that they’ll be guaranteed to show up at the polling places come March 20 and Nov. 6.

Plus, Rauner has the right-leaning segment of the Republican Party convinced he’s not really one of them. Jeanne Ives, the state senator from Wheaton who likes to talk about her days at West Point, will take supporters from Rauner he really could use in a Republican primary.

IVES: Hoping to thwart guv March 20

So theoretically, Faris isn’t totally off-base in saying Rauner is beatable. Maybe even a serial sexual harasser could beat him. After all, that label could be applied to the president himself; it didn’t seem to impact his electability in 2016.

But life is never that straight-forward. Nothing is that predictable.

WHILE THERE MAY be some people who are ready to cast their ballot right now (and probably think it appalling they have to wait some two-and-a-half months to do so), there also are a significant share who are undecided. And don’t want to be bothered with having to think about it until just before Election Day.

BISS: Could he beat Pritzker in primary?

The fact is that Rauner is not going to go down without a fight – and he has the experience of having done this once before. His will be a campaign that will not lack the necessities, and he has the focus of knowing that some people will be willing to vote for him out of a sense of practicality – the same way they may have voted against Democrats/for Trump two years ago.

My own thought is that political candidates can go on the attack all they want; but in the end, they have to give voters a reason to want to cast a ballot for themselves.

Thus far, the reason to vote for J.B. or any Democrat is that they’re not Rauner. There may be plenty of time, but until they come up with a solid reason to be worthy of our votes, we can’t totally count out “four more years” of Bruce for Guv.

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