Tuesday, February 19, 2019

How politically vulnerable will Underwood be come the '20 elections?

I have no doubt that Rep. Lauren Underwood, a Democrat from Naperville, is going to face one of the most aggressive political challenges when she seeks re-election in 2020.
UNDERWOOD: Already being challenged

She is, after all, a black woman Democrat who ran in last year’s elections for a Congressional seat representing one of the most intense Republican districts in Illinois. Meaning I expect GOP political operatives will think of her as THAT WOMAN who had the NERVE to take a seat away from their ranks.

TRYING TO REGAIN the Illinois 14th congressional district post may well be one of the priorities for Republicans nationwide in the next election cycle.

Yet I can’t help but admit that I’m wondering if Republicans are going to be their worst enemies, and that they won’t be able to overcome the advantages of incumbency that Underwood will have as she seeks a second term in Congress.

As the Capitol Fax newsletter reported Monday, documents were filed with the Federal Elections Commission that would have state Sen. James Oberweis, D-Sugar Grove, as a candidate for the U.S. Senate from Illinois.

Except that Oberweis has no intention of actually trying to depose Sen. Richard Durbin, D-Ill, who would be running for a fifth term in the U.S. Senate come that election cycle.
Oberweis couldn't even win in '02 … 

IT SEEMS A campaign aide for Oberweis marked the wrong box in filing the forms for his boss. He’s going for the House of Representatives seat – making him one of three Republicans thus far with an interest in taking on Underwood.

Should we really think that highly of a candidate whose staffers are inept enough to misfile their candidate’s forms? They can’t even tell which office he wants to run for? Unless they’re really amongst the few deluded enough to think Oberweis is worthy of one of Illinois’ top political posts?
… against Durkin, how could he think … 

It’s certainly obvious enough that the voters don’t think much of him. He’s run for U.S. Senate and Illinois governor. In fact, he would have been the candidate who tried to take on Durbin way back in 2002 – except that Oberweis couldn’t even win the Republican primary that year.

It wound up being Jim Durkin (now the Illinois House Minority leader) who won that primary, only to get his behind whomped by Durbin’s desire for a second term in the U.S. Senate (he’s now on term four, and would be seeking a fifth if the 74-year-old Springfield resident actually makes it all the way through the process).
… of beating up on Durbin

MY POINT BEING that if Oberweis truly is the best the Republicans can come up with for the 2020 election cycle, they may well be handing Underwood a victory already.

Because despite his multiple election campaigns throughout the past three decades, the only post he’s ever been able to win is that Illinois Senate seat from DuPage County.

He may be just the local jamoke who’s incapable of taking on anybody bigger – particularly if the Democrats are able to build up Underwood’s national reputation to any degree.
Ocasio-Cortez younger by three years

Because she is the woman with a medical professional background who currently has the so-called title of the youngest African-American woman (age 32) to be elected to the House of Representatives.

SHE’D ACTUALLY BE the youngest woman ever if not for Alexandra Ocasio-Cortex from New York, whose victory last year came at age 29.

Admittedly, Underwood doesn’t have anywhere near the mouth that Ocasio does – the one that manages to offend Republican partisans so intensely that they usually wind up managing to put their feet in their own mouths whenever they try to attack her.
STAVA-MURRAY: Dem really faces tough times

But I have to admit, Underwood is going out of her way to respond to just about every issue and put herself in the mix of what is happening in D.C. I’ve literally lost count of the number of statements she has issued that wind up in my e-mail box.

And if it turns out that she has challengers as inept as Oberweis, she could wind up being the favorite – particularly since I get the impression that Naperville political operatives are going to be more focused on causing the political defeat of Anne Stava-Murray, the Democrat with a mouth who says SHE wants to take on Durbin come 2020.


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