Saturday, February 23, 2013

EXTRA: Polls; Take them for what they’re worth come Election Day

KELLY: An 18-point lead?
I couldn’t help but be amused by the pair of polls I stumbled across Saturday morning with regards to the Illinois Second Congressional district campaign.

For a poll taken by the We Ask America group (one whose surveys I have found questionable in the past) has former state Rep. Robin Kelly of suburban Matteson leading solidly 37 percent to 19 percent for former Congresswoman Debbie Halvorson of suburban Crete.

NINTH WARD ALDERMAN Anthony Beale gets a third place with 11.5 percent – with the remaining third of the vote either undecided or split up amongs the other dozen or so candidates with dreams of serving on Capitol Hill as a Democrat.

But then there’s the poll that the Daily Journal newspaper of Kankakee felt compelled to write up – one taken by Victory Research for Chicago’s WCKG radio.

They want to believe that the one-time member of Congress seeking a political comeback is in the lead – 21 percent to 17 percent for Kelly.

Obviously, somebody is significantly “off” and is going to look incredibly stupid come Wednesday morning.

ALTHOUGH MY GUT reaction is that both of them don’t quite have it right.
HALVORSON: Enough Will county votes?

The pollsters who did the Halvorson-leading poll are telling reporter-types that there is evidence that gun control critics are piling on their support to the Lady from Will – although I seriously doubt there are enough people living in the rural portion of the county that is in the Illinois Second to swing it that much.

If there were, we likely wouldn’t be having a special election, because we’d be watching the antics of freshman Rep. Brian Woodworth, R-Ill., instead as he would have beaten Jesse Jackson, Jr., in last year’s general election.

But an 18-point lead in a 15-candidate field? I doubt it. Anybody who thinks Kelly will win by that much probably is convinced that ’13 is THE year for the Chicago Cubs to win it all.


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