It’s possible – presuming that Garcia is able to avoid getting bogged down in the legalistic minutia that experienced political people like Emanuel can use to take down an opponent without actually having to campaign against them.
MONDAY
WAS THE first day for people wishing to be on the ballot for the Feb. 27
elections to file their nominating petitions. Emanuel’s people were among those
who filed in hopes of getting listed on the top ballot spot.
Garcia
wasn’t there. His campaign is waiting until later in the week to file.
Officially, they are saying they want to use every bit of time possible to make
up for the fact that it was just a few weeks ago that Chuy said publicly he
would run for office.
For
all I know, Garcia may wind up waiting until the absolute deadline at the close
of business on Nov. 24 before filing his petitions – in hopes of getting the
absolute last spot on the ballot.
Electoral
conventional wisdom contends that being listed first or last on a ballot is
worth more votes than being lost in the middle of the list – on account of
undecided voters merely picking one of those slots.
FOR
AN ELECTION as high-profile as Chicago mayor, there probably won’t be many
undecideds. So rushing for an early Monday filing to get the top slot isn’t as
important.
But
what will be intriguing will be how people react once Garcia does file his
petitions. I already sense the feeling of a ballot challenge to try to claim
that Garcia doesn’t qualify to run for mayor because he didn’t show enough voter
support.
Get
him kicked off the ballot, and it won’t matter how many people would like a
chance to vote for him. As evidenced by a new poll commissioned by the Chicago
Teachers Union (which officially has endorsed Garcia).
They
contend that if it were merely a two-candidate race between Emanuel and Garcia,
Rahm would take 36 percent with 31 percent for Chuy and another 30 percent
undecided, as of now.
WITH
SOME THREE months remaining between now and Election Day, that’s a lot of time
to dig into that “undecided” vote.
Which
is why it is likely that people supportive of Emanuel will go the ballot
challenge route. Even if you are unable to kick him off, you can keep his
campaign with its limited and yet-to-be raised funds bogged down in trying to
justify its ballot spot – rather than seriously campaigning and reminding us of
the reasons that many Chicagoans (62 percent have “unfavorable” views of him,
according to the teachers union’s poll) wish they could dump Rahm from office.
Now
I’m not saying that there really is anything wrong with the nominating petitions
Garcia has yet to file. In fact, one Garcia supporter I spoke with stated it
perfectly, in saying, “It will be Rahm being Rahm, being a tough guy with his
money.”
As
in the nearly $10 million he already has raised for his re-election campaign.
IT
MIGHT BE peasant money compared to the nearly $100 million that got spent on
the recently-completed gubernatorial election (with two-thirds of that on
behalf of Gov.-elect Bruce Rauner).
Although
it should be stated that Emanuel himself survived a serious ballot challenge in
2011. Could the desire to dump Rahm make it possible for Garcia to survive this
year?
That
might be where Garcia runs into real problems. Because even his supporters
admit his recognition declines outside of the Pilsen and Little Village neighborhoods,
along with the South Chicago and East Side communities that comprise the bulk
of the city’s Mexican-oriented population.
Can
Chuy make himself and his anti-establishment (as in anything connected to the
name “Daley”) political background known even if his very existence on the
ballot is being challenged?
WILL
THE REST of Chicago take to Garcia? Or will the anti-Emanuel vote wind up getting
split between 2nd Ward Alderman Robert Fioretti, former alderman
Robert Shaw and the others (including one token Republican) who are likely to
file nominating petitions?
That
will be the key question in determining whether Emanuel’s political fantasy
will come true!
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