Tuesday, March 11, 2014

A "miracle" comeback in final week?

We have a week until Election Day, and Republican gubernatorial hopeful (or is he a dreamer) Kirk Dillard is trying to create the perception that he's about to make political history in the next few days.
DILLARD: A miracle-man? Not likely

The Chicago Tribune's final campaign poll fits into his illusion, since it shows the state senator from Hinsdale in second place lagging 13 percent behind the support of venture capitalist Bruce Rauner.

IT ALSO SHOWS a 13 percent share of the likely electorate saying they haven't made up their minds yet who to vote for.

Could it be that all of the undecideds will decide in coming days that they despise Bruce and want Kirk to be the man who bears the Republican Party label in the Nov. 4 general election agaisnt Gov. Pat Quinn?

If this were mid-February instead of one week away from the election, I'd think there was a good chance for this to happen.

But there's only a few days, and there's also the reality that the Rauner campaign that is the well-financed one that can use its money to try to crush any momentum-gaining tactics that Dillard might try to use.

JUST A RANDOM thought -- Rauner uses his money to crush political opposition just as much as any of the "career politicians" whom Rauner claims to be an alternative to.

But back to the main point; does Dillard have it in him to thwart Rauner's desires to become an elected public official? Can he really gain so much support in seven days without anyone else getting anything?

It does seem possible, because it seems the various polls show Rauner with support from about 35-40 percent of the possible Republican electorate. That seems to be the extent of the number of people who want him.

Which means a majority of Republicans want somebody else. But the degree to which they want ANYONE ELSE? I don't know they care THAT much. Even if the Cook County clerk's office is reporting a record-high number of people who are registered to vote in this particular election cycle.

IT IS CLEAR that Republican voters will consider themselves completely successful if they can bring an end to the concept of Illinois being governed by a Democratic Party official who thinks that the Executive Mansion in Springfield isn't all that special a place to live in full-time.

They seem to have accepted the fact that they're not retaking control of the Illinois General Assembly, and probably won't do so well for the U.S. Senate seat from Illinois.

If they were interested, I doubt they'd be so willing to back a repeated general election loser like James Oberweis; as the polls indicate they're likely to do so on March 18.

But there isn't much time. Nor is there the unity. Because there are those who'd really like to have a rural presence as governor. I'm not convinced that the backers of Bill Brady (a long-time Bloomington resident who didn't even leave his home to attend college) are going to back away.

OR THAT THEY'D be satisfied with Dillard in any way.

One week is just too little of time for all this to be resolved in any way, other than the status quo somehow being maintained.

I suspect that most of the 13 percent undecided (if the Tribune poll is to be believed) will wind up deciding they don't care enough about any of the candidates. They will stay home. They won't bother to vote.

Of course, those people likely will be the loudest complainers when they wake up March 19 and see the primary election results. They'll find reasons to whine and shriek about how the "stupid voters" didn't pick the right person.

INSTEAD OF ACCEPTING that this most active of all the campaigns this election cycle just didn't have anyone thrilling enough to capture the mindset of the electorate.

Which means this upcoming week is likely to be just like the past few months. A big yawn!!!


No comments: