But
does that mean I’m convinced this campaign cycle is effectively over? Or that
Quinn ought to hang his head in shame and failure for the next three months?
OF
COURSE NOT!
My
gut feeling says that the poll released Monday by the We Ask America organization
(whose results often tend to lean toward GOP candidates, no matter who
commissions the studies) is considerably off, and that anybody who’s taking its
results seriously is going to be disappointed.
You
know which poll I’m talking about – the one that had Rauner leading Quinn by a
14-point margin. As in 47 percent for Rauner and 33 percent for Quinn. A
sitting governor in a state whose population leans toward his party only gets
33 percent voter support?!?
That’s
so laughable a concept that it ought to discredit the results right away.
SO
WHEN I learned of a poll commissioned by the Illinois Education Association
that gives Rauner only a 4 point lead (46 percent for Rauner to 42 percent for
Quinn), somehow that seemed more realistic.
Now
I’ll be the first to concede that the teachers’ union that represents many
suburban school districts has already thrown its endorsement lot in with Quinn.
So they have a stake in making him look as strong as possible.
Just
as the people who are all too eager to want to believe a 14-point lead are ones
who have a stake in making Quinn look ineffectual. Polling data is the ultimate
evidence that numbers can be used to tell just about any story imaginable.
Numbers
can tell stinkin’ lies, if used in certain ways.
PERSONALLY,
I’M ALWAYS most interested in checking out the “undecided” category when it
comes to electoral polls. How many people can’t make up their mind about who
they want.
It
just seems that this election cycle is one where the undecided factor is higher
than usual. Although we have just over 90 days to go prior to Election Day.
People are going to change their mind.
Which
makes these numbers all so uncertain and unreliable.
It
also fits in with the anecdotal evidence I have seen in talking with people who
are capable of voting on Nov. 4 (or earlier if they use one of the Early Voting
Centers to cast a ballot).
I
HONESTLY BELIEVE that Rauner already has every single supporter he’s going to
get on Election Day. Anybody who hasn’t already decided they’re voting for him
isn’t going to do so, and nothing is going to change their minds.
And
yet even in that 14-point lead poll, Rauner has 47 percent voter support. Which
isn’t enough to win – unless you believe that any of the fringe candidates
running for governor will actually catch on amongst the electorate and come
close to taking more than 1 percent of the vote.
Those
undecideds, if they get off their duffs and cast votes, may well wind up going
for Quinn. Unless they decide that they could care less about either candidate,
and they wind up voting for nobody.
Which
is a real possibility, and is the basis of the Rauner campaign strategy to
discourage votes amongst certain people. Quinn has to motivate them to think that
they should care about his campaign, even though many of these people are
psyching themselves up for the February 2015 mayoral election (and potential April
2015 runoff) to try to get Chicago Teachers Union President Karen Lewis, or
anybody else, to beat Mayor Rahm Emanuel.
THIS
IS WHY I remain convinced this is Quinn’s election to lose, even though
long-time political observer Larry Sabato this week shifted his analysis saying
Illinois has gone from being a “toss-up” to “leans Republican” when it comes to
governor.
If
Quinn can get his supporters to care enough to get out to the polls and vote as
he did in 2010 against Republican William Brady then he’s going to give us
evidence to the old adage that, “The only poll that matters is the one on
Election Day.”
And
if he can’t, then his campaign has no one else to blame for their failure than
themselves.
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