RAOUL: The next governor? |
I
suspect that the reaction from many people who happen to stumble across this
commentary is something along the line of “Who?!?”
THEN
AGAIN, I’M fairly sure that was the reaction of many people back in 2004 when
then state-Sen. Barack Obama was first speculated as a possible presidential candidate.
Personally,
I’m not sure that Raoul is the next Obama. Even though some people are quick to
point out that both were from the Hyde Park neighborhood, have general
progressive political credentials and are black men whose names don’t exactly
comply with the ideals of those who see this as a WASP-y nation.
But
aside from being a black man (which could make him the candidate who takes the
bulk of the African-American segment of the vote), I’m not convinced he will
get into this particular election. If anything, a Raoul campaign succeeding
would overcome odds bigger than anything Obama managed to do.
Admittedly,
the current candidate field almost begs for a third person to get involved.
WE
HAVE CURRENT Gov. Pat Quinn seeking re-election, and former Commerce
Secretary/White House chief of staff William Daley also seeking the Democratic
nomination for governor.
QUINN: Front-runner? Or long-shot? |
There
are those people who can’t stand the idea of Quinn, and others who can’t stand
the concept of a Daley having any political influence outside of Chicago.
Both
men have potential drawbacks, and the right third candidate could manage to
succeed – particularly since in a three-way race, you don’t need a majority to
win. It could only take 36 percent.
Although
I wonder if Raoul’s biggest drawback is a characteristic he has in common with
both Quinn and Daley – he lives in Chicago.
DALEY: The BIG name |
FOR
I SUSPECT that the people who are most eager to not vote for either Daley or
Quinn are those who live in the “other” third of Illinois – the part that isn’t
Chicago, or its suburbs. The part known commonly by the epithet “downstate.”
Those
people want a candidate from outside of the Chicago area, and probably one who
isn’t going to have much more appeal to the African-American voter bloc than
either Daley or Quinn – the latter of whom is most likely to take the black
vote if it remains just the two candidates in the March primary.
The
big problem, of course, is that there aren’t any downstate officials who are in
a position to run a serious campaign for governor as a Democrat. I wonder if a
Quinn vs. Daley vs. Raoul field would seriously depress the voter turnout in
the Democratic primary outside of the Chicago metro area.
I
suspect the bulk of the “rural” vote will wind up working its way to the
Republican primary – although I’m not convinced that state Sen. William Brady,
R-Bloomington, will be any more successful than he was three years ago when he
ran for governor.
RUTHERFORD: The eventual challenger |
SOME
MAY THINK that he had his chance in 2010, and it’s time to find someone new.
That may be the reaction to state Sen. Kirk Dillard, R-Hinsdale, as well. As
for state Treasurer Dan Rutherford, he may be too obscure, while business
executive Bruce Rauner may come off as “too Chicago” for that rural-type vote.
Raoul’s
chances of becoming governor may center on the concept that the electorate
finds ALL of the candidates so unbecoming that he stands out in a crowded
field.
It
could happen. Or maybe not!
For
the senator from the Hyde Park neighborhood has shown himself to be a serious
legislator who has more ambition in life than to be the next alderman of the 5th
ward. It’s not always the highly-qualified person who manages to get themselves
elected to office.
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