Nobody knows who Rahm's presidential pick is

If I had been forced to put money down on a political issue, I would have been a loser on Friday.

I seriously believed that New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson would eventually come down on the side of Hillary R. Clinton in the fight among Democrats for the party’s presidential nomination.

RICHARDSON WAS THE former cabinet member in the administration of President Clinton who was under serious political pressure to come out and support the former first lady’s desires to be U.S. president.

When he dropped out of the presidential race following his lackluster performances in the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary (third place, behind Hillary and Barack Obama), he went back to his duties as New Mexico governor.

He kept silent on the presidential race, often saying that his endorsement (in and of itself) doesn’t mean much. That silence ended Friday when he formally supported Obama’s presidential dreams over Clinton’s fantasies.

Richardson was the first to admit the pressure he received from the Clinton camp, which considered him to be a friend and ally. We got to see the photograph of Richardson sitting with potential first gentleman Bill Clinton watching the Super Bowl earlier this year.

SO FOR RICHARDSON to come out for Obama is a big deal – in that his name is now “mudd” insofar as Bill and Hillary Clinton are concerned. Political people tend to think in terms of “loyalty,” and think that favors are not to be forgotten. Richardson’s political career will deteriorate if Hillary actually manages to beat Barack and go on to be Leader of the Free World.

It is that exact scenario that has caused Rep. Rahm Emanuel, D-Ill., to keep his mouth shut ever since the primary campaign season began unofficially over a year ago.

Emanuel has even tighter loyalties to both Clinton and Obama – both of them think that Emanuel should have come out in support of their candidacy a long time ago, and he’s going to make an enemy for life regardless of who he publicly supports. (You can forget about asking him who he actually voted for back on Feb. 5).

Obama, who is fighting for every single delegate he can get, can’t even count on getting every single delegate from his own home state. Of the “super-delegates” from Illinois who could wind up picking the presidential nominee, one is refusing to back Barack.

THAT WOULD BE Rahm, who gets to be a super-delegate due to his elected position as a member of Congress from Chicago’s Northwest Side and surrounding inner suburbs.

For the record, he praises Obama and says his fellow politico from Chicago would make a wonderful Democratic candidate for the U.S. presidency.

But Emanuel is a suburban Chicago boy who owes his political career to the Clintons. Emanuel was a White House senior policy adviser during the Bill Clinton presidency who is credited along with Mayor Richard M. Daley’s brother, William, with helping to get the North American Free Trade Agreement approved by Congress.

It was those ties to the Clintons that enabled him to run for office himself, returning to Chicago where he defeated former Chicago Park District attorney and state Rep. Nancy Kaszak in a 2002 congressional primary that turned into a classic Chicago political brawl and could easily have become a progressive crusade converting Kaszak into a female version of “Mr. Smith.”

THOSE CLINTON TIES also allowed the relative newcomer to Congress to get the position of chairman of the House Democratic caucus – which put him in a position to oversee the coordinated effort in 2006 that led to Democrats gaining control of the U.S. House of Representatives.

Rahm Emanuel is a political heavyweight because of his ties to the Clintons – both Bill and Hillary. Some people might think the fact that he didn’t immediately come out in support of Hillary is a sign of political ingratitude.

But he also knows that coming out in support of the Clintons will irritate the Obama backers of his home district, and also totally miff those people who six years ago voted for Kaszak because they feared Emanuel was so D.C.-oriented in his view that he would neglect their Chicago concerns.

EMANUEL MIGHT VERY well be facing the toughest political dilemma of the 2008 election season.

If he picks the loser, his career will instantly shrivel up and die. Even if he picks the winner, he’s going to make an enemy of the loser, which is bad because neither Hillary Clinton nor Barack Obama is going to wither away when they lose.

A “President Obama” would be wise to consider Clinton for a high-ranking, significant post in his administration (and not vice-president, that job requires nothing more than a pulse).

A “PRESIDENT CLINTON” the second would need to respect Obama as a new heavyweight political player in the U.S. Senate – one whose support will be needed if she wants to accomplish anything during her stint in the White House.

I fully expect Emanuel will wait until the absolute last minute possible before letting us potential voters know whether he’s a “Clinton man” or a “Barack backer.” We may very well have to wait until the Democratic National Convention in Denver when he casts his super-delegate vote for one or the other.

Emanuel wants a friend in the White House and an ally among his congressional colleagues. Making the wrong choice now could ensure that he gets neither.

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EDITOR’S NOTE: Rep. Rahm Emanuel gave his advice earlier this week to both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton as to how they should go about trying to renegotiate the terms (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120588246877846793.html?mod=googlenews_wsj) of NAFTA.

Emanuel is the lone Illinoisan of significance who won’t publicly back Barack Obama’s presidential aspirations. (http://www.wbbm780.com/Obama-Secures-Illinois-Super-delegates--Except-for/1838217)