If there’s really a date that matters to Ill. budget, it’s Tuesday. Not Saturday!

Happy Fiscal New Year, Illinois.

As far as the business entity otherwise known as Illinois state government is concerned, 2018 begins Saturday. We’re now beginning a third year of operations without a budget plan in place for the state.

THERE WERE MANY who were figuring that meant this was the point in time by which our officials would have to put aside their petty partisan political differences and do something to ensure that state government meets its obligations for the future.

Of course, the General Assembly quit by mid-day on Friday – with little public attempt to even pretend it was trying to pass something, anything, that could be construed as a budget.

Our legislators will return to work on Saturday – and not just because Gov. Bruce Rauner issued an order telling them to do so.

It was Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan, D-Chicago, who said early Friday that legislators would continue to work until something was approved that could be sent to Rauner for his final approval.

IN FACT, HE then made a point of sending letters to the heads of the bond rating agencies such as Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s; asking them not to rush into any action to reclassify the financial status of Illinois government.

There have been hints that if the state didn’t act by Friday and actually allowed a third fiscal year to begin without a budget, they’d go ahead and knock Illinois down to the lowest status possible.

That of “junk bond status.”

 

BRADY: New part of budget equation

Which would put it as a part of the legacy of Rauner’s gubernatorial term that Illinois plunged as low as it could go – although I’m sure Rauner fully intends to place blame on Madigan for this situation. Reports indicate television advertising spots making such an accusation are already prepared, but that Rauner is holding off on paying money to air them in coming days to see what happens.

WHAT CAME DOWN on Friday was the faintest glimmer of hope. The two sides of state government don’t have an agreement on a state government budget. But they have some sense of agreement on procedural measures that would lead to a budget agreement.

The Illinois House on Friday morning went so far as to take an overwhelming vote of support, with a final vote of approval to come at a later date. Which is what Madigan alluded to in telling the bond rating agencies that something will happen soon.

Of course, nothing really happens until that final vote is taken. Then the matter would have to go over to the Illinois Senate for consideration. Even then, a single “no” could strike the whole thing down. That “no” being the veto power of Rauner himself.

Which is why Tuesday may be the significant date. If nothing happens by then, it’s likely that nothing will happen at all and we probably should prepare for the worst.

THE SIGNIFICANCE OF Tuesday being that it is Independence Day. Never underestimate the significance to a legislator of wanting to march in whatever local parade is being scheduled for their home community.

I have no doubt these people want to go home for the summer on Sunday or Monday. They want to make their local public appearance on Tuesday and use their events to celebrate both U.S. independence AND a state budget.

Legislators want to feed their egos from their local voters by telling them how they personally influenced the whole process. Some may want to believe that it was somehow brand-new Illinois Senate Minority Leader William Brady, R-Bloomington, (remember his failed 2010 bid for governor against Pat Quinn?) who impacted the action. That may be total exaggeration on their parts, but it is something they want to do.

They want to be a part of the fireworks back home, not lingering on at the Statehouse in Springfield while fireworks of a different sort go off from the electorate peeved that we’re now in Year Three without a state budget in place.

  -30-

Can rural really prevail over Chicago?

I remember my first college roommate, a native of downstate Normal, explaining to me the downstate perception of Chicago by telling me a large part of the complication is that many residents of the "rest of Illinois" think on a different scale and do not comprehend just how much larger the Second City is compared to other Illinois municipalities.


I also once had a professional counterpart (a Southern Illinois native) who seriously believed the Illinois Legislature should be split into 102 districts -- one for each county. That would allow for one legislator per area.


I COULDN'T HELP but be reminded of them when I learned Wednesday of the interview that state Sen. William Brady, R-Bloomington, gave to the major radio station in his home city.


He said that the key to a Rauner victory is for that campaign to build upon the fact that when Brady ran for governor in 2010, he wound up winning 98 of the 102 counties.


As though one more rural county would have pushed Brady over the top, and sent Pat Quinn to political retirement some four years ago.


Not quite. There are rural counties whose entire populations are dinkier than our smallest of suburbs.


ACTUALLY, WHAT RAUNER has been trying to achieve is to avoid doing what Brady did -- becoming so identified with downstate Illinois (yes, I know Rockford is actually north of Chicago, but arguing over the label's legitimacy is an issue for a future commentary) that it actually motivated Chicagoans who otherwise wouldn't have cared about governor to actually vote.


We didn't want the 'bumpkin' in office working against us Chicagoans, so we voted against them. Thus far, Quinn's attempts to make Rauner out to be the "rich" guy with nothing in common with 99.99999 percent of us  is not anywhere near as effective.


Hence, the various polls showing Rauner with leads of different sizes.


The key to this gubernatorial election is going to be which people actually bother to vote -- always a complicated factor for state government elections because many Chicago people who consider themselves politically aware are so focused on the City Hall scene that they just don't get worked up over their state legislator; whom they view either as an alderman-in-training or some knucklehead not qualified for a post at the Hall.


TURN THIS INTO a debate about economic issues, as perceived by the wealthy amongst us who view government as not favoring their interests enough, and Rauner may well win.


If people keep in mind the fact that we'd be more like Indiana on the social issues if not for the efforts of Quinn in recent years, then he may wind up with enough votes on Election Day for another four years.


At which time we'll get to see if Quinn was being honest when he said earlier this year that he would consider this his last run for electoral office -- and would finally bring his time in public life to an end come January of 2019.


  -30-

Will Oberweis gaffes impact GOP? Will Rauner hurt self more than gov?

I'm sure the official spin we're going to get in coming days (in about 36 hours, once the primary election cycle is complete) is that the political momentum leans toward the Republicans.

Who will rule here? A long ways to go!

After all, it is likely that Bruce Rauner will be the GOP nominee for governor (the only real question is whether Kirk Dillard will finish a close second place, or somewhat distant). He will have all the public attention on him come Wednesday morning.

WHILE NO ONE will have been paying attention to Gov. Pat Quinn, because he didn't have to put any effort into winning his primary bid for re-nomination.

We're going to hear tales about how Rauner (or Dillard, if he really does pull off the political comeback he's been fantasizing about for the past week) is the "It" girl of Illinois politics -- while Quinn is just deadly dull. Nobody will care. How can he top the excitement being generated by the GOP nominee?

If it reads like I'm writing that with a semi-sarcastic tone, I'd say "no." I'm being fully sarcastic.

Because I wonder if we're about to approach the high point of the Republican Party's dreams of returning to relevance in Illinois. I expect it will occur someday. I'm just not sure it's going to be this year.

WHICH IS A shame. Having Quinn and Richard Durbin at the top of the Democratic ticket creates the image of the "same ol' stuff." If Republican operatives had any sense, they'd try to claim to be the political party of "change."

Instead, they seem to be determined to give us the same old stuff. Which is why I'm inclined this election cycle will wind up giving us maintenance of the political status quo.

And that, in large part, is because of the man who really will be at the top of the Republican ticket. It won't be Rauner/Dillard/whoever. It will be James Oberweis, the state senator from Sugar Grove who wants to take on Durbin.

He's also the business executive who has made so many political gaffes in his multiple bids for electoral offices (he's tried running for governor, member of Congress and U.S. senator -- before finally winning an Illinois Senate seat).

I REALLY SEE a situation where he winds up doing something that ticks off the electorate to the point where Durbin will be able to count on a solid victory -- and return to a fourth six-year term in the U.S. Senate.

Already in this campaign cycle, he's getting hit about his residence status. Which is in Illinois, although his wife appears to be the type of person who would just as soon be rid of Illinois.

She lives in Florida, and the Oberweises are wealthy enough that they can actually afford to live in some style with two separate households. Not something the bulk of us could ever dream of doing.

It seems that when we all got hit with the most recent severe winter snowstorm, Oberweis wasn't here with us in Illinois. He was in Florida. He says he wanted to be with her for her birthday, and also told reporter-types how he lost his first wife (to divorce) because he spent too much time devoted to his "work."

OBERWEIS AS A devoted husband? Or just somebody who's sticking with us in the Midwestern U.S. because he sees us as a potential electoral opportunity?

I don't consider this gaffe as severe as the one from campaigns past where he flew around Soldier Field in a helicopter, reminding us that "illegal aliens" slipping into the United States could fill up the Chicago Bears' home stadium with a new crowd each and every day.

But these things do pile on to the degree that Republicans don't really seem to think much of their chances of beating Durbin. They're focusing attention on dumping Quinn.

Yet to what degree does the "top of the ticket" harm the rest of the Republicans?

PARTICULARLY IF PEOPLE start viewing the GOP Top as one headed by two candidates who are rich guys who don't live like the rest of us. For Rauner, homes in Winnetka and a downtown Chicago high-rise, along with properties in other parts of the country?

How long until we get gags about the Illinois Republican big-wigs convening at Oberweis' Florida home? Or the ranch in Montana that Rauner owns? Not exactly the image for a political party that likes to brag of its direct ties to Abraham Lincoln and that house in downtown Springfield, Ill.

Plus, it's just a matter of time before one of the men -- if not both -- winds up saying or doing something that gets converted into the next big scandal.

The Rauner opposition during the primary election cycle was so underfunded, they couldn't come up with anything to make stick on him. Which gubernatorial hopeful William Brady seemed to allude to during last week's final City Club of Chicago debate when told Rauner that he'd probably be an unknown lingering in last place if NOT for all that personal money he spent on television advertising to tout himself in the most favorable way.

QUINN WON'T HAVE that same campaign finance problem. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if the first negative attack ad (either from the Quinn camp or from Quinn sympathizers) were to come on Wednesday.

Start chipping away at the veneer he has erected, and see if it can start to stick. And if the GOP nature for gaffes continues, perhaps it really all will come tumbling down.

Now I'm not 100 percent sure what to think of the Quinn campaign. The man is more than capable of doing himself in politically. I'm just not convinced that people should get all arrogant about that "26 percent" approval rating we hear about over and over and pronounce him politically "dead."

Let's be honest. There will be at least a few body blows the Republican challengers will have to to cope with that will be completely self-inflicted!

-30-

A "miracle" comeback in final week?

We have a week until Election Day, and Republican gubernatorial hopeful (or is he a dreamer) Kirk Dillard is trying to create the perception that he's about to make political history in the next few days.

DILLARD: A miracle-man? Not likely

The Chicago Tribune's final campaign poll fits into his illusion, since it shows the state senator from Hinsdale in second place lagging 13 percent behind the support of venture capitalist Bruce Rauner.

IT ALSO SHOWS a 13 percent share of the likely electorate saying they haven't made up their minds yet who to vote for.

Could it be that all of the undecideds will decide in coming days that they despise Bruce and want Kirk to be the man who bears the Republican Party label in the Nov. 4 general election agaisnt Gov. Pat Quinn?

If this were mid-February instead of one week away from the election, I'd think there was a good chance for this to happen.

But there's only a few days, and there's also the reality that the Rauner campaign that is the well-financed one that can use its money to try to crush any momentum-gaining tactics that Dillard might try to use.

JUST A RANDOM thought -- Rauner uses his money to crush political opposition just as much as any of the "career politicians" whom Rauner claims to be an alternative to.

But back to the main point; does Dillard have it in him to thwart Rauner's desires to become an elected public official? Can he really gain so much support in seven days without anyone else getting anything?

It does seem possible, because it seems the various polls show Rauner with support from about 35-40 percent of the possible Republican electorate. That seems to be the extent of the number of people who want him.

Which means a majority of Republicans want somebody else. But the degree to which they want ANYONE ELSE? I don't know they care THAT much. Even if the Cook County clerk's office is reporting a record-high number of people who are registered to vote in this particular election cycle.

IT IS CLEAR that Republican voters will consider themselves completely successful if they can bring an end to the concept of Illinois being governed by a Democratic Party official who thinks that the Executive Mansion in Springfield isn't all that special a place to live in full-time.

They seem to have accepted the fact that they're not retaking control of the Illinois General Assembly, and probably won't do so well for the U.S. Senate seat from Illinois.

If they were interested, I doubt they'd be so willing to back a repeated general election loser like James Oberweis; as the polls indicate they're likely to do so on March 18.

But there isn't much time. Nor is there the unity. Because there are those who'd really like to have a rural presence as governor. I'm not convinced that the backers of Bill Brady (a long-time Bloomington resident who didn't even leave his home to attend college) are going to back away.

OR THAT THEY'D be satisfied with Dillard in any way.

One week is just too little of time for all this to be resolved in any way, other than the status quo somehow being maintained.

I suspect that most of the 13 percent undecided (if the Tribune poll is to be believed) will wind up deciding they don't care enough about any of the candidates. They will stay home. They won't bother to vote.

Of course, those people likely will be the loudest complainers when they wake up March 19 and see the primary election results. They'll find reasons to whine and shriek about how the "stupid voters" didn't pick the right person.

INSTEAD OF ACCEPTING that this most active of all the campaigns this election cycle just didn't have anyone thrilling enough to capture the mindset of the electorate.

Which means this upcoming week is likely to be just like the past few months. A big yawn!!!

-30-

Obama "respected" by Republicans? Dillard still condemned for saying so

It seems destined to become the campaign ad that will live on -- as in that moment in 2007 when Barack Obama tried to show he has bipartisan political tendencies by including state Sen. Kirk Dillard in a television spot touting himself.

It was brought up again Thursday night when three of the four gubernatorial candidates debated each other at Benedictine Univeristy in suburban Lisle.

CANDIDATE WILLIAM BRADY reminded everybody on hand that Dillard did that spot promoting the GOP's version of "The Great Satan" himself.

How dare he say that Obama, back when he was a state senator from the Hyde Park neighborhood, addressed "the deepest issues we had" and "Republican legislators respected Sen. Obama" and "his ability to understand both sides (of issues) would serve the country."

Who'd have thought that a 30-second spot from six years ago would still be talked about today? Who in their right mind would think this ad featuring Dillard and former state Sen. Larry Walsh (remember him?) would ever be interpreted as having much of significance?

But when you're in a campaign in which the front-runner thinks so highly of his chances that he didn't even bother to show up for the latest debate, then you take the chance to grab the moment -- even for something lame like this.

BRADY VS. DILLARD -- which some people thought was to be a rematch of 2010 -- has devolved to being the "Race for Second Place."

This is particularly pathetic because it comes at a time when Dillard finally came up with some campaign cash (less than two weeks before Election Day, compared to the Bruce Rauner campaign that has been inoculating us with its campaign ad propaganda for several months now) to get himself on the air.

Will Dillard ever live down his not-hostile ...

It was just this week that Camp Dillard came up with both television and radio spots that tell us just how wonder Kirk is and how much he cares about the people of Illinois.

While also tossing in a line saying, "Dillard's a conservative Republican who believes in traditional values."

MEANT FOR ALL those people who keep bringing up the Dillard appearance in an Obama ad and want to believe that he's somehow not "One of them."

Not only because it comes across as "Too little, too late," but I wonder how ineffectual these broadcast spots will turn out to be. Although it doesn't help Dillard any that he's all over the place about Obama these days. Who knows what he really thinks! When it comes to television, the president may have given us the image that will linger of Dillard -- even though he has spent every waking moment since then trying to make people believe he can be a "right-wing" as anybody else in politics.

... thoughts about Barack Obama?

Now for anyone who was paying attention to state government back in the 1990s, it isn't much of a shock that Obama and Dillard were friendly.

The future president and current gubernatorial dreamer were part of a group of legislators who spent their off-hours in Springfield playing poker (which is about as close to a sordid story as I know of about Obama's days at the Illinois Statehouse).

REMEMBER BACK TO 2008 when some black people questioned whether or not the biracial Obama was really "black enough" to be considered a black president? Part of the reason for this was because some of his legislative colleagues in the Black Caucus thought Obama was a bit too comfortable amongst white people.

Because he could bring himself to play cards on a regular basis with people like Dillard and state Sen. Terry Link, D-Waukegan. Writing it out like this makes it seem all the more trivial. But this is the kind of mentality that often determines what political people think of each other, which then spreads out to the electorate.

Obama seems to have overcome this -- he did win, after all. And now there are those who can't envision how anyone could ever have wanted to respect the future president.

Dillard becomes the devil incarnate. Which is just absurd. Although I'm sure he wishes people scouring YouTube these days for "moving pictures" of himself would focus on that tribute Dillard did to now-former Gov. Jim Edgar -- to whom he was once the equivalent of Rahm Emanuel to Barack Obama.

WHICH IS WHY this lame attempt at a campaign issue gets to linger on and on long after that television spot should have withered away into something that only the most pathetic of political geeks would ever bother to look up on YouTube.

Or are you the type more interested in checking out Obama Girl or will.i.am?
 

 

-30-

Some people never learn

Perhaps it’s the distortion of there being 96 counties in Illinois outside of the Chicago area that makes political people think it has more than the roughly one-third of the state’s population.


BRADY: Fixing funds? Or making enemies?

But it seems that at least one Republican gubernatorial candidate is determined to be the preference of rural Illinois, without any regard to what the urban part of the state thinks.

THAT’S THE IMPRESSION I got after reading the reports about William Brady’s thoughts about who ought to pay for pensions for retired school teachers.

Brady told the Arlington Heights-based Daily Herald newspaper he thinks that school districts ought to be responsible for any part of pensions caused by future pay hikes districts provide to their teachers.

Since salaries are going to increase in the future, it would mean a gradual shift in the funding of pension programs from state government to the local school districts – a concept that WILL tick off school superintendents all acros the state.

There already are enough officials who are prepared to symbolically strangle Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan, D-Chicago, for having suggested that perhaps one key to resolving the state’s financial problems is to have school districts take over full responsibilities for the pensions of their retirees.

I’M SURE THAT Brady, the state senator from downstate Bloomington whose bid for governor in 2010 failed because he lacked support in urban areas, thinks he has come up with the perfect compromise – since the state would continue to provide for the part of the pensions they’re already covering.

All I know is that I have dealt with enough schools officials across the state to know this is an untouchable issue to them. They say that threatening to alter Social Security funding is a “third rail” among the electorate that kills any candidate suicidal-enough to touch it?

One could probably say that this issue has the same effect amongst educators.

But in the Chicago suburbs, this will play particularly poorly. Because state funding for public education already is on the decline. The reaction of the school officials will be to turn to the shares of local property tax revenues they receive to come up with the money.

THAT MEANS THE local school districts would need more money. Which they will turn to their local residents to raise. Which means an increase in property taxes overall – it only takes one government entity in a community (whether City Council, school board, park district, sewage district, etc.) to cause a homeowner to pay more when their property tax bill is due.

And for those who rent, the landlord will think nothing of passing along the property tax increases they pay onto their tenants.

In suburban districts where local tax levels already are high, the residents will grouse and gripe about paying more. In those districts where the local economy is declining (particularly many districts in southern Cook County), there just won’t be any additional money to cover such expenses!

There already are significant discrepancies between school districts that make it impossible for all children in this state to get an equal quality level of education. Does this threaten to make it more difficult for certain school districts to obtain, and keep, quality educators?

THE WHOLE POINT to having the state cover the cost of pensions was meant to equalize that factor. Every teacher ought to have a shot at a pension they can live off of in those years after they stop working. Having the state handle this issue for everyone was meant to balance things out.

Which is why it is the quirk of the process that the Chicago Public Schools teachers do not partake in state pension programs. They opted out years ago, figuring out a way to do better by their former faculty on their own.

Which means Madigan may be on to something with his past hints that maybe the Chicago schools pensions should be shifted to the state. Of course, that’s not going to happen. The increased costs to state government would harm it even more.

Plus, the thought of having to pay more because of Chicago schools would offend rural Illinois politicos, almost as much as Brady will offend the suburban officials who think they will get hit with more costs because of his pension-shift theory.

  -30-

EXTRA: Is there enough Cook Co. GOP for its endorsement to matter?

The Republican Party organization for Cook County apparently is sick and tired of being thought of as the GOP’s weak spot in the Land of Lincoln.

They’re planning to make a public endorsement this weekend concerning who they’d like to be the Republican nominee for governor come the 2014 election cycle.

WHICH IN MOST election cycles wouldn’t mean much. Because the Republican Party in this part of Illinois has become less and less important in recent decades. The idea that state elections pit Democratic Chicago versus the Republican rest of the state just isn’t accurate any longer.

It’s now Democratic Cook County and portions of the five surrounding counties against the rest of Illinois – which is why this state has gone from the early 1990s when it was still an accurate bellwether of the nation to being solid Democrat nowadays.

So what really will be gained by whichever gubernatorial candidate gets the GOP backing to take on Gov. Pat Quinn come the November general election?

Bruce Rauner, the North Shore venture capitalist who has close personal ties to Mayor Rahm Emanuel, would like to have it. Other gubernatorial candidates don’t want him to have it.

THEY ARE TRYING to spin the possibility of Rauner gaining the endorsement by saying that a Cook endorsement could be harmful. Gubernatorial dreamer Kirk Dillard told the Associated Press that voters in the rest of Illinois are so determined to have someone with no Chicago ties that a county GOP endorsement. “could be a hindrance in a place like Peoria.”

Yet I have to confess to wondering if this isn’t so much spin as a realization of fact.

In the last election cycle for Illinois governor, some 765,534 people voted in the Republican primary – of which about 162,000 came from Cook County. Which translates into roughly four votes from other parts of the state for every vote that comes from Cook!

QUINN: Will Cook GOP boost him?

Unlike the Democratic Party primary where somewhere between 75 and 80 percent of the vote can come from Cook – and most of the rest comes from the few sort-of urbanized pockets of Illinois (such as the areas around Peoria, East St. Louis and Champaign-Urbana – those crazy college kids!).

MY POINT BEING that I also recall that 2010 election cycle as being one where eventual GOP nominee William Brady – who’s trying again this time – really did have the whole rest of the state wrapped up.

Yet he lost because Brady got tagged in Cook with the label as being too alien from our own experience. Cook voters overwhelmed his dominance in the rest of Illinois.

I don’t see that much has changed. I sense there are people in that “rest of Illinois” who have been gnashing their teeth the past four years who will try again to win political influence away from Chicago.

Why do I sense that the way to kill interest in rural Illinois in next year’s election cycle is to put Rauner in that “top” post on the ballot? Because the perception is out there that Emanuel himself would just as soon have a sympathetic Rauner even over someone of his own political party like Quinn!

COULD THE COOK County Republican Party’s attempt to make a statement and be relevant wind up being a factor in Quinn gaining re-election?

It might be the exact opposite of the party’s intention, and could be why some people are engaging in the incredibly premature speculation over whether the Mighty Quinn – the one-time political gadfly and pain in the establishment’s butt – could become the state’s longest serving governor.

  -30-

It’s campaign time – ’14 cycle begins

I didn’t venture down to Springfield early Monday, although I wish I could have. For there was the occurrence of a key moment in an election cycle.

The ticket of Tio Hardiman/Brunell Donald-Kyei filed its nominating petitions Monday so it could challenge Pat Quinn/Paul Vallas come March 18. Photograph by The African Spectrum

 

The filing of nominating petitions; the documents required of any candidate to show that he has any kind of support that makes him (or her) worthy of a spot on the March 18 primary election ballot.

EVEN IN MY absence, however, the usual spectacle took place – hundreds of people lined up outside the offices of the Illinois State Board of Elections to submit their petitions in hopes that they can be the first to file for their desired office so as to qualify for the top slot on the ballot.

In some cases, the actual candidates came out to wait their turn in line. While others sent their political operatives to do the dirty work of bearing with wintry-like weather.

It seems this year, there were a few people who camped out beginning last week to ensure they were they absolute first people in line when the state Board of Elections offices opened at 8 a.m. Which is always the case. I’ve seen it in the past – only the names have changed, ever so slightly.

According to the Chicago Tribune, they were people who worked for Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan, D-Chicago. Personally, I’d have been more impressed if Madigan himself had shown up to file his petitions.



William Brady gets credit for filing ...

INSOFAR AS THE Republican brawl for the gubernatorial nomination, it seems that William Brady and Kirk Dillard to file the petitions that their campaign aides put together for them.

While Bruce Rauner sent aides to do it for him, and Dan Rutherford sent Steve Kim – his running mate for lieutenant governor, to do the paperwork that gets the two of them on the ballot.

Since all were on hand when the Elections Board office opened, there will be the lottery sometime next month to determine who actually gets the top ballot spot (which according to political superstition can be worth as much as 5 percent of the vote).

Won’t it stink for the candidate who froze his tushie off on Monday, only to lose the lottery and wind up last or next to last?



... own petitions, as did Kirk Dillard

THERE’S ALSO THE Democratic Party brawl, so to speak, for governor.

Tio Hardiman filed his petitions to get on the ballot, meaning that Gov. Pat Quinn will have an actual challenger for the primary. But now we know the actual name of Hardiman’s lieutenant governor running mate.

She’s Brunell Donald-Kyei, an attorney who according to the Capitol Fax newsletter once worked in the Public Guardian’s office before going into private practice, where she was the attorney for Eugene Mullins – a friend of former Cook County Board President Todd Stroger who was found guilty of corruption charges for allegedly taking kickbacks related to county contracts.

We can joke about a possible Paul Vallas/Donald-Kyei debate, although it probably says a lot that the State Board of Elections website botched her name. We may have some voters searching for “Donald Brunell” on the ballot.

THAT IS IF they don’t just ignore the Hardiman/Donald-Kyei slot and cast their vote for Pat Quinn.

I’m focusing primarily on the governor’s races for now, because I suspect they’re about the extent that anybody is paying attention to political campaigns at this point.

Other elections will get their day in the sun, although it probably will be a cloudy, overcast day and few will pay attention. It always causes me to feel dismay the degree to which many people don’t pay attention to their elected officials – then want to rant and rage when their ineptitude comes through.

Although I found it intriguing to see state Rep. Derrick Smith, D-Chicago, filed his petitions Monday for re-election. Smith, of course, was the freshman legislator whose colleagues kicked him out of the Legislature when he was indicted on federal charges that amount to soliciting bribes.

SMITH: The political thing that won't go

BUT SMITH GOT himself re-elected in the very next election cycle. And it seems the U.S. Attorney’s office is taking so long to get around to Smith’s trial that he may well finish out his current term and get himself picked to another!

For those who are repulsed at the notion, his conviction would eventually remove him from office. But the Smith shadow will continue to cover the General Assembly.

It is why political observer geeks such as myself find days like Monday to be something special. It literally is a day when everybody who wants to run for office has to make their physical presence in Springfield – or at the County Building downtown if their desired dream post is a Cook County government position.

It’s not quite the same as those people who line up to ensure they get any seat for a rock concert or major sporting event. Even though it ought to be regarded as more important -- considering the influence these people have to dictate how the tax dollars generated from our incomes actually gets spent.

  -30-

One year and counting ‘til Election Day

We’re at the first Tuesday following the first Monday of November. Which in most years would mean that we have reached the culmination of the “silly season.”

Go to school!!! NO election today

All the rants and rages and innuendoes and slander and ridiculous rumor being spewed by political people who are trying to take down another political person would be coming to an end. It would be Election Day.

YET 2013 IS the one year every four when we get spared from such trash talk. Our elections this year were limited to select suburbs, and took place back in April. Nobody in Illinois is voting for anything this day.

We’re just at the point where it is now 52 weeks until we have to decide who will win the 2014 election cycle. Our state’s U.S. senate seat will be up for grabs, along with the Illinois governor’s post and all the other offices within state government – including all of our state legislators.

At this time next year (which will fall on Nov. 4, to be exact), we’ll finally be putting an end to the nonsense. But for now, we have a full year of it.

And there will be plenty of nonsense, particularly in the ranks of the governor’s race. Although the Senate race will get silly too – although perhaps not as much because the Republican partisans seem to be having trouble coming up with a credible candidate to take on the mantle of “Dump Dick Durbin.”

AND YES, IF you try searching that phrase on Google or some other search engine, you’ll find a lot of explicit images and definitions of the phrase in a crude manner. Don’t try it, unless you’re prepared to be repulsed.

Countdown to political retirement ...

Then again, there are those who are more repulsed by the prospective GOP nominee – James Oberweis – who has a record of failed campaigns for political office because his attempts at political conservatism wind up being so off-putting to real people.

I’m sure he will spew the venom against Durbin – who wants a fourth six-year term in the Senate. Whether he can credibly make any of his allegations stick has yet to be determined.

Which means most Republicans interested in winning an election are going to be focusing on the gubernatorial race. Which actually falls within their way of looking at government.

THEY WANT THE state governments to be all supreme, with the federal government learning to mind its own business and do what the states tell them to do.

... or preparing for new terms in office?

The GOP-leaning types probably would rather have governor, particularly if they think he would be able to order the U.S. senators around in some way.

But the gubernatorial field is such right now that I don’t have a clue which of the four candidates now circulating nominating petitions to get on the March primary ballot will actually be running in November.

I could see both William Brady and Kirk Dillard (who has gone out of his way to alter his one-time moderate stances into something that can appeal to the rural conservative interests that dominate the Republicans these days) getting not only those people excited, but also the interests of urban Chicago.

AS IN ANGERING those urban voters to the point where they turn out in force to vote for anybody but them – even Pat Quinn, whom many think of as being so bland, if not incompetent.

I could also see Bruce Rauner’s campaign being just the thing to turn off the Republican base to the point where they don’t bother to vote next year. He is, after all, the friend of Mayor Rahm Emanuel (which has me wondering how long until someone starts beating up on Dillard because he used to be a friend to Barack Obama back when both served together in the state Senate).

OBERWEIS: Does he help, or hurt?

The GOP’s best chance to win could well be Dan Rutherford – although it’s questionable whether the one-time Pontiac-area legislator has enough of a personality to run a credible statewide campaign.

But it could be that he gets the Republican base, while Democrats take their usual attitude toward state government elections. They don’t matter!!!!

BECAUSE WE ALL “know” that the elections of real importance are the City Hall ones that will take place in 2015. State government is for the people who aren’t qualified to serve in the city (which could be part of why Stephanie Neely wouldn’t want to give up a city treasurer post to be lieutenant governor).

Of course, the real truth is that I don’t have a clue who’s going to win on that first Tuesday following the first Monday of November that will take place one year from now.

Anybody who says they do know is either lying to you, or else is more ridiculously optimistic than a Chicago Cubs fan.

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It’s Quinn vs. whoever! Those who can't accept that fact should get over it

The way the election cycle for Illinois governor is shaping up these days, there seems to be only one concept that prospective voters agree about.

HARDIMAN: Still in the running

Nobody takes seriously Tio Hardiman’s bid for the Democratic Party nomination for governor.

HARDIMAN IS THE former director of CeaseFire Illinois, a group that is concerned about the level of violence in urban areas. He also is a product of public housing in Chicago – which gives him a perspective on life that we rarely see amongst our public officials.

But it also is one that many people prefer to ignore, which is why would-be voters aren’t taking seriously the notion of Hardiman even though he technically is the only challenge that Gov. Pat Quinn faces now in his bid for re-election.

It is now considered a given that Quinn will be the Democratic Party candidate for governor in 2014 – although some are feeling desperate enough to want to talk people such as Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle or former Illinois Treasurer Alexi Giannoulis into considering a bid. Some people think that the departure of William Daley from the primary scene is to Quinn’s advantage.

He can now focus on being governor and roaming around the state doing gubernatorial things while the four guys in the running for the Republican nomination are beating up on each other.

THE GOP “WINNER” will be bloodied and bruised, while Quinn will be fresh and will have had the chance to use the coming months to build himself up a campaign fund of sufficient size that he can go on the attack the day after primary election day.

Of course, there also are those who want to think that all the public attention will now be paid to the Republican candidates. They will be beating up on each other, while no one will be paying the least bit of attention to Quinn.

QUINN: The presumptive nominee

He’ll become a political nobody; as in not all that liked by his alleged Democratic Party allies and in the dreams of all GOP operatives who have the taste of blood in their minds.

Personally, I think that’s a bit over the top; primarily because there are the advantages of incumbency that Quinn will have as he tries to get himself a second full term as Illinois governor.

QUINN MAY NOT have high approval ratings these days. Then again, Quinn himself has never been well-liked by his “colleagues” in electoral politics. Quinn is the equivalent of the high school classroom nerd whom people wish they could completely ignore – but somehow manages to do things that forces himself into public attention.

BRADY: Giving it another go

I’m not saying that I believe Quinn is a shoo-in for re-election. He’s going to have a challenge. People, by and large, are dissatisfied with the performance these days of Illinois government. They will be looking for someone whose head they symbolically can put on a pike when they cast their votes in the primary and general elections next year.

I’m just not convinced that the Republican candidates are any more liked than Quinn these days. In fact, I wonder how much the ideological nonsense taking place in Washington these days will wind up reflecting badly amongst people back here.

Some may approve, but others won’t. And let’s not forget that Quinn got himself elected in 2010 largely because of a sense amongst an urban majority that the Republican gubernatorial candidate would be openly hostile toward their interests because he came from the “other third” of Illinois – as in not city or suburbs.

RAUNER: Wishing he could be rural

EVERY TIDBIT I have heard coming from the GOP primary candidates makes it seem as though they are interested in focusing their campaigns on the rural part of the state – which could make them equally unattractive to Chicago-area voters in 2014.

It’s going to be confusing. It’s going to be chaotic. It’s going to be a mess. Who knows at this point who’s going to be governor?

Except that it won’t be Hardiman; even though he probably should be taken seriously because he at least talks passionately on his pet issues.

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Ethnic benefits w/out actually offering much? GOP strategy again in ‘14

Republican gubernatorial hopeful William Brady told us of his choice for lieutenant governor. It’s Maria Rodriguez, a former village president of suburban Long Beach.

RODRIGUEZ: How many think she's Latina

The “highlight,” so to speak, of her political career on anything other than a municipal level was back in 2010 when she ran for Congress – and lost to Joe Walsh in the GOP primary.

BUT BRADY, THE state senator from Bloomington whose 2010 bid for governor collapsed because he became too associated with rural Illinois, hopes that having a suburban person will make him a little more amenable to Chicago-area voters in the 2014 campaign cycle.

What I find intriguing about this is the fact that one of Brady’s challengers, Dan Rutherford of Pontiac, came up with suburban business executive Steve Kim to be his lieutenant governor running mate.

Political operatives openly admit that part of what Rutherford gains is a possible outreach to the growing Asian population (Kim is of Korean ethnic origins).

And now, Brady is giving us (as in potential voters) the Latina who isn’t. “Rodriguez” is her married name.

ALTHOUGH I’M SURE Brady won’t object if many voters don’t realize that fact and presume that she is. This appointment becomes his gesture (not much of one, to be honest) toward the Latino community.

Which I’m sure he will try to use in ways to deflect criticism of the fact that many of his policy thoughts and political alliances will be with people who would prefer to think of diverse ethnicity as a problem our nation must deal with – rather than just the reality that offers up so many advantages!

The Republicans will claim that criticism of them is wrong. After all, they’re trying to include all kinds of people. Actually, all kinds of people who are just like themselves – although that’s a thought for a future commentary.

Will Steve Kim really shift Asian votes to GOP?

For today, I have to note that it seems odd to me that these “gestures” of support toward varied ethnicity are being done by GOP candidates with regards to lieutenant governor candidates.

THAT’S THE POSITION that has oft been described by political observers as, “not being worth a bucket of warm spit.”

That is the political position Republican officials think is worthy of someone who isn’t quite WASP-y enough to fit an image? It isn’t quite the way that the party should be going after ethnic voters – not if they’re at all serious about achieving results.

Rutherford reaching out to Latinos?

The fact that those of us with differing ethnic origins will be able to see through this kind of blatant appeal will be the reason why Kim probably won’t be responsible for getting significant numbers of Asian voters to cast votes for GOP candidates.

And as for Rodriguez? It’s her name. I’m not denouncing her. But I’m expecting the ethnicity confusion to create quite a bit of humorous moments in coming months.

NOT THAT THIS strategy ought to be surprising. Because the very same Illinois Republican officials tried the same thing back in 2010.

Let’s not forget that Kim was the Republican nominee for Illinois attorney general, while Steve Enriquez was the GOP choice to serve as Illinois secretary of state.

Of course, they ran against Lisa Madigan and Jesse White, respectively. Those two turned out to be the biggest vote-getters of the 2010 election cycle in Illinois – and also the two who were never thought to have a serious chance at victory! Kim’s backers may boast that he got more than 1 million votes in the 2010 general election, but he still got his butt whupped by Lisa Madigan.

The day the GOP comes up with an electoral winner is the day the political party will be taken seriously amongst the growing ethnic populations. Until then, it just comes across as the kind of tokenism politics that Republicans often accuse Democrats of engaging in!

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