Tuesday’s primary elections will not live up to national political hype

I don’t have a clue who is going to prevail in the special primary elections to be held Tuesday that will allow residents of Northwest Side neighborhoods and surrounding suburbs to start the process of replacing former Rep. Rahm Emanuel.

The Illinois 5th Congressional District has sat vacant for the past two months while Emanuel has served as White House chief of staff. That has caused the nation’s political geeks to focus so much attention on our city to figure out who gets to be Rahm’s successor in Congress.

YET I CAN’T help but wonder if this is a campaign where there will be more people paying attention outside the district, than within it.

Chicago Board of Election Commissioners officials won’t offer predictions about voter turnout, but the Cook County clerk’s office (which will oversee election operations in the small suburban sliver of the district) notes that only about 300 people bothered to use the early voter centers to cast their ballots prior to Election Day.

That doesn’t exactly sound like a campaign that is getting the populace all worked up. It is a far cry from last year’s general election for president, where there was evidence that many people who used the early voter centers did so because they were excited about the chance to vote for (or against) Obama.
For everybody outside these boundaries, Tuesday is just another weekday. Map provided by http://www.nationalatlas.gov/.

There’s a good chance that Tuesday will come and go, and many people living in the Illinois 5th will not even realize that they should have bothered to go to the polling place to cast a ballot.

NOW I’M NOT about to start berating the potential electorate. After all, this is a special election – one that couldn’t even be held in conjunction with the standard primary election day (which for every other elective office up for grabs in the area was Tuesday of last week).

At least the general election for the Illinois 5th will be held on the same day as all the other general elections. Perhaps that could help bolster voter turnout.

Then again, since the winner of Tuesday’s special Democratic primary is the odds-on favorite to win the general election, maybe it won’t – particularly since there truly is so little difference between the dozen Democrats who dream of winning the political lottery (a seat in the House of Representatives) that there shouldn’t be much difficulty in getting the various factions to unite behind Tuesday night’s winner.

But who that winner will be, I don’t know. It truly is going to center on how many (really, how few) people bother to show up at the polling places.

LOW VOTER TURNOUT means that fewer votes will be needed in order to win. And considering that there are so many candidates in each of the three primaries being held Tuesday, that means the percentage needed to win could be potentially low.

We could literally get the sight on Tuesday of a Democratic nominee for Congress who wins with about 15 percent of the total vote.

With that factor, a lot of the conventional wisdom about this campaign deserves to get flushed down the toilet.

How relevant is it that the remains of Chicago’s once-strong Polish community is concentrated in this congressional district? If it is, then no-name Victor Forys (and his strong ethnic-influenced campaign tactics) could very well have a chance.

BUT WHAT IF the women band together? Then we could get state Rep. Sara Feigenholtz on her way from Springfield to Washington.

Want this to become a battle of political regulars? Then state Rep. John Fritchey, Cook County Board member Mike Quigley or Ald. Patrick O’Connor could stand a chance.

Or perhaps there’s a chance that all five of these people could wind up splitting the vote so thoroughly that labor attorney Tom Geoghegan stands a chance of getting a large enough share of the vote to win a Democratic primary.

Or maybe there will be some cosmic fluke (like in 1986 when Aurelia Pucinski and George Sangmeister lost to Janice Hart and Mark Fairchild) of politics that results in someone else having a chance.

IN FACT, ABOUT the only prediction I feel confident making about Tuesday’s elections is that whoever wins the Green Party primary won’t matter in the least come April 7.

Part of the problem in getting people interested enough to care about this election is that it is a “special” election being held on a separate date from other political activity. I’m not surprised that real people feel they have more important things to worry about than every attack ad issued by Feigenholtz or Fritchey or whoever.

In fact, part of the reason I am bothered by the people who are determined to dump Roland Burris and have a special election this year to pick a new U.S. senator from Illinois is that I can see the exact same result occurring.

The “special” nature of the election could confuse people and diminish its interest. I would not want anyone getting the advantage of incumbency because they were able to win a political crapshoot – particularly since the real election for that particular office will be held as soon as next year.

BUT HAVING SOMEONE pick a replacement for Rahm is not an option. Only statewide offices come to the attention of the governor – largely because trying to coordinate special elections for all 102 Illinois counties would be a headache.

So on Tuesday, a few people in neighborhoods such as Lake View, Roscoe Village and Sauganash, along with some select suburbs like Schiller Park and River Grove, will turn out to cast ballots to see who gets to stay in the race to represent the Illinois 5th Congressional District.

The end result will be that in just over a month, there will be a new member of Congress who likely will have the dubious distinction of saying that fewer than 20 percent of the primary voters of his/her district truly cared enough to vote for them.

-30-

“Childish brawl” campaign TV spot not worthy of legitimate Congressional bid

Insofar as political minutia is concerned, the Congressional bid of state Rep. John Fritchey, D-Chicago, has achieved something “significant” – it may have come up with the most memorable television spot for Campaign ’09.

Fritchey, who wants to replace Rahm Emanuel in representing the Northwest Side in Congress, has come up with what may be the most memorable television spot for Campaign ’09.

BUT IF THAT is the only thing one can say for Fritchey (who wants to replace Rahm Emanuel in representing the Northwest Side in Congress), that could become the reason he does not prevail in the special Democratic primary to be held next week.

For those of you who have watched Chicago-area television, you know what campaign ad I’m referring to.

It’s the one with two children yelling and screaming at each other, only to have Fritchey play the part of the responsible adult who tells the two to knock it off and quit acting like children.

Of course, those children are supposed to be portraying Fritchey’s most significant Democratic opponents – state Rep. Sara Feigenholtz, D-Chicago, and Cook County Board member Mike Quigley.

SO FRITCHEY KICKED off the broadcast portion of his congressional campaign by going on the attack against the two. He could have done something more positive, but decided it was more important to try to take his opponents down a notch or two.

Forget about emphasizing that he has some fairly significant endorsements thus far.

Although this ad ends with a graphic letting us know Fritchey is the Congressional preference of the Independent Voters of Illinois, the Illinois Federation of Teachers and the AFL-CIO, it nearly gets lost in the shuffle of seeing two children scream and poke at each other.

I could understand Fritchey downplaying those endorsements if the Republican Party were strong enough to put up a serious candidate in the April 7 general election. But they’re not, so his support from factions of organized labor is not going to come back and bite him in the behind a month from now.

SERIOUSLY, IT IS bizarre to hear kids scream at each other over which one is more venal – the one who has worked with Cook County Board President Todd Stroger, or now-impeached Gov. Rod Blagojevich.

It is even more odd to see the time and trouble that someone went to in order to do up the girl in the advertising spot with a hairdo nearly identical to the way Feigenholtz wears her own mane.

But the fact that Fritchey hired people and spent significant money (roughly $175,000) to go to such detail to prepare an attack ad that will air until Monday strikes me as vapid. It makes me all the more glad I no longer live in this Congressional district (as I did for one summer about 25 years ago) so I won’t have to pick between the two dozen or so mopes who want to move politically “up and out” to Capitol Hill.

I suppose those people who specialize in running electoral campaigns will tell me that I am underestimating this television spot. After all, it is the one spot of this year’s election cycle that sticks in my mind. It inspired me enough to feel the need to write a commentary on the matter.

IT’S NOT LIKE I noted anything memorable about the Feigenholtz television spot that promotes her interest in healthcare issues, or her mother’s experience practicing medicine in the immigrant neighborhoods of 20th Century Chicago.

It has planted the name “Fritchey” in my brain as ranking (in this one category) above all the others. I suppose for some people, when they walk into that polling place on March 3, this advertisement could be the factor that causes them to decide who to vote for.

Yet I can’t help but think that this trivial campaign spot will turn off as many voters as it turns on.

How many people will think (as I do) that it is pompous of Fritchey to appear in the ad, quoting President Barack Obama of all people, in saying, “it’s time to put aside childish things.”

AS SOME POLITICAL observers have noted, the “charges” in the ad that the boy playing Quigley makes against the girl playing Feigenholtz are not allegations put forth by the real Quigley. They’re really Fritchey’s talking points for the campaign trail.

Hence, Feigenholtz becomes the woman who tried to work with Blagojevich and former Gov. George Ryan (even though any state legislator is going to have to work with an incumbent governor to some degree), and Quigley is the guy who’s too chummy with Stroger (although what kind of county board member would Quigley be if there wasn’t some connection).

Of course, things could be worse this campaign season.

We could have more candidates in this race with big-enough campaign funds to pay for television airtime. We could be inundated with spots, although some of the lesser candidates have tried to prepare video segments that can be seen only on the Internet.

OR, WE COULD have some of the other elections for municipal office believing that they wee worthy of political television. Anyone who has been watching Campaign ’09 as a whole knows that two of the nastiest electoral situations have taken place in south suburban Calumet City and west suburban Cicero.

Incumbent officials tried to use their local electoral boards to kick any potential challengers off the ballot – thereby making Tuesday a routine primary election in those two municipalities. Ballots for Tuesday’s elections wound up having to be decided by the courts, and weren’t settled until last week.

They failed in Cicero (Mayor Larry Dominick will face a challenger), but were successful in Calumet City (Michelle Markiewicz Qualkinbush got rid of her opposition, and will have significant advantages against them when they try to run write-in campaigns, both on Tuesday and on April 7).

Just think if these nasty brawls had worked their way onto our television screens? We’d have had to have a moratorium on television watching through early April.

-30-

Feigenholtz has the campaign cash lead, but wants more money for federal bid

I’m trying to figure out whether Sara Feigenholtz is incredibly honest, or absurdly brash, in her latest pitch for campaign contributions.

The state legislator from the Lakeview neighborhood who is one of the roughly two dozen people who want to replace Rahm Emanuel in Congress sent out a letter whose purpose is to get people to pull out the checkbook and write out a check to “Friends of Sara.”

THERE IS NOTHING unusual about that. Campaigns cost money, and serious political candidates have to spend a significant portion of their time making financial pitches to all kinds of people.

But how many campaigns have you ever heard of that started off their campaign pitch by informing you that they already had more money in their campaign fund than any of their opponents?

That is what Feigenholtz (who has served in the Illinois Legislature since 1995) did in her pitch, a copy of which was received by e-mail sent Monday to the Chicago Argus.

Now in all honesty, Feigenholtz put a unique spin on the fact that her campaign has more money than anyone else. She says it is evidence that her campaign for the Illinois 5th Congressional district seat is the most legitimate one in existence – and therefore should be the one that gets additional donations.

“IT IS CLEAR that while other campaigns are just getting off the ground, we are in full-stride,” Feigenholtz wrote in her campaign donation solicitation.

She did not give specific figures, but conceded in her financial pitch that she has raised more than $300,000, while none of her opponents has raised even half that figure – and some opponents have yet to raise any money for their campaigns.

She derides some of her opponents (most likely Cook County Commissioner Mike Quigley and state Rep. John Fritchey, D-Chicago, who is the son-in-law of the brother of Alderman Bill Banks) of “relying on old-style machine politics” to get voter support.

But it becomes very hard to take seriously the idea of Feigenholtz as some sort of “Pat Quinn-style” reformer when, by her own admission, she has a “$300,000 head start.”

NOW IT DOES not surprise me to learn Feigenholtz has a campaign that is somehow ahead of all the others in the political mess that has become a Democratic Party primary on March 3 for the Illinois 5th Congressional. Like many other Chicago-oriented elections, the general election on April 7 is a mere formality – whoever gets the GOP nomination has no chance of winning.

She is one of roughly a half dozen candidates who have establishment political credentials. Most of the people in the running are fringe candidates with little government experience, or even much in the way of a local reputation.

Their only hope is for the Democratic primary to become such a mess with no front-runner emerging that it could be possible for someone to win the Democratic nomination with maybe 8 percent of the vote – which is a long shot to occur.

Feigenholtz also has the advantage of being the only woman in the running for the congressional seat (Ald. Dick Mell’s daughter wound up deciding to stay in Springfield in her recently-obtained Illinois House of Representatives’ seat, rather than try to move immediately to Washington).

THAT HAS ALREADY gotten her the endorsement of various activist groups that promote the interests of women in politics, and also potential fundraising help from the EMILY’s List organization that tries to help women have the financial resources to run credible political campaigns.

In fact, if I lived in the Illinois 5th Congressional, I could very well see myself voting for Feigenholtz (I live in the Illinois 1st Congressional, where Bobby L. Rush has run for so long against only token opposition). She has been a credible public official in Springfield since the moment she replaced the whiny and ineffectual former state Rep. Ellis Levin at the Statehouse.

The political realist in me doesn’t blame Feigenholtz for playing hardball with trying to raise campaign cash. She is going to need every penny she can get. Former Sen. Paul Simon, D-Ill., often used to complain about how politicians had to devote time every workday to raising money if they wanted to assure their re-election.

Simon’s own final re-election bid in 1990 (against a weak GOP candidate, Lynn Martin) cost $8.4 million. It is in that environment that Feigenholtz is trying to raise enough money to ensure she can really make the trip to Capitol Hill AND be a credible member of Congress.

BUT IT BECOMES very hard to not burst into hysterics when reading a letter from someone that says (A) I have more money than everybody else, and (B) give me another $150.

Seriously, her fundraising pitch tells us that providing Friends of Sara with a $150 donation will allow Feigenholtz to pay for a campaign mailing that will reach 500 likely voters.

Do you really want to help Feigenholtz? Then give her a $500 donation – which will allow 2,000 people to receive Sara’s campaign mailings.

This is the reality of modern-day electoral politics. It’s not about getting votes by kissing babies. It’s about getting votes by kissing the buttocks of potential supporters, preferably on the point where their wallet bulges.

-30-

EDITOR’S NOTES: Sara Feigenholtz has compiled a credible record during her time (http://www.ilga.gov/house/Rep.asp?MemberID=912&GA=94) in Springfield, and she hopes to bring (http://www.saraforcongress.com/) a similar attitude to Washington.

Feigenholtz’ Congressional campaign will gain some national attention due to the fact that (http://blogs.suntimes.com/sweet/2009/01/emilys_list_backs_sara_feigenh.html) she is the only woman on the ballot.

Is it too much of a contradiction of terms for a “progressive” political official to have (http://www.suntimes.com/news/politics/1407378,CST-NWS-fifth01.article) “clout?”