How politically vulnerable will Underwood be come the '20 elections?

I have no doubt that Rep. Lauren Underwood, a Democrat from Naperville, is going to face one of the most aggressive political challenges when she seeks re-election in 2020.

UNDERWOOD: Already being challenged

She is, after all, a black woman Democrat who ran in last year’s elections for a Congressional seat representing one of the most intense Republican districts in Illinois. Meaning I expect GOP political operatives will think of her as THAT WOMAN who had the NERVE to take a seat away from their ranks.

TRYING TO REGAIN the Illinois 14^th congressional district post may well be one of the priorities for Republicans nationwide in the next election cycle.

Yet I can’t help but admit that I’m wondering if Republicans are going to be their worst enemies, and that they won’t be able to overcome the advantages of incumbency that Underwood will have as she seeks a second term in Congress.

As the Capitol Fax newsletter reported Monday, documents were filed with the Federal Elections Commission that would have state Sen. James Oberweis, D-Sugar Grove, as a candidate for the U.S. Senate from Illinois.

Except that Oberweis has no intention of actually trying to depose Sen. Richard Durbin, D-Ill, who would be running for a fifth term in the U.S. Senate come that election cycle.

Oberweis couldn't even win in '02 … 

IT SEEMS A campaign aide for Oberweis marked the wrong box in filing the forms for his boss. He’s going for the House of Representatives seat – making him one of three Republicans thus far with an interest in taking on Underwood.

Should we really think that highly of a candidate whose staffers are inept enough to misfile their candidate’s forms? They can’t even tell which office he wants to run for? Unless they’re really amongst the few deluded enough to think Oberweis is worthy of one of Illinois’ top political posts?

… against Durkin, how could he think … 

It’s certainly obvious enough that the voters don’t think much of him. He’s run for U.S. Senate and Illinois governor. In fact, he would have been the candidate who tried to take on Durbin way back in 2002 – except that Oberweis couldn’t even win the Republican primary that year.

It wound up being Jim Durkin (now the Illinois House Minority leader) who won that primary, only to get his behind whomped by Durbin’s desire for a second term in the U.S. Senate (he’s now on term four, and would be seeking a fifth if the 74-year-old Springfield resident actually makes it all the way through the process).

… of beating up on Durbin

MY POINT BEING that if Oberweis truly is the best the Republicans can come up with for the 2020 election cycle, they may well be handing Underwood a victory already.

Because despite his multiple election campaigns throughout the past three decades, the only post he’s ever been able to win is that Illinois Senate seat from DuPage County.

He may be just the local jamoke who’s incapable of taking on anybody bigger – particularly if the Democrats are able to build up Underwood’s national reputation to any degree.

Ocasio-Cortez younger by three years

Because she is the woman with a medical professional background who currently has the so-called title of the youngest African-American woman (age 32) to be elected to the House of Representatives.

SHE’D ACTUALLY BE the youngest woman ever if not for Alexandra Ocasio-Cortex from New York, whose victory last year came at age 29.

Admittedly, Underwood doesn’t have anywhere near the mouth that Ocasio does – the one that manages to offend Republican partisans so intensely that they usually wind up managing to put their feet in their own mouths whenever they try to attack her.

STAVA-MURRAY: Dem really faces tough times

But I have to admit, Underwood is going out of her way to respond to just about every issue and put herself in the mix of what is happening in D.C. I’ve literally lost count of the number of statements she has issued that wind up in my e-mail box.

And if it turns out that she has challengers as inept as Oberweis, she could wind up being the favorite – particularly since I get the impression that Naperville political operatives are going to be more focused on causing the political defeat of Anne Stava-Murray, the Democrat with a mouth who says SHE wants to take on Durbin come 2020.

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Could partisan political “trade-off” be detrimental to Illinois’ future as state?

Does Bost's congressional victory ...

Some might wonder how President Donald Trump can be delusional enough to think his political interests succeeded on Election Day. Yet if one looks at the political maps in a certain way, it becomes apparent.

For it would seem the parts of Illinois that were already Republican are now moreso.

THOSE AREAS MIGHT well be the parts of the state that lie outside the Chicago metropolitan area. But those are often areas that think of themselves as an entity to their own.

… console Republicans for Roskam's loss?

Which means I’m not surprised many of those people are feeling thankful they have so thoroughly chased Democratic Party interests out of their portion of the state. They may think they now have domination of the only portions of Illinois that matter.

Then again, I wouldn’t be surprised to learn a similar sentiment exists within the Chicago area that isn’t all too concerned about these political losses, because they managed to take portions of the outer suburbs that oft were represented by Republicans in the past, but have now swung over to the Dems. Heck, Illinois Republican Chairman Tim Schneider couldn't even win re-election to his post on the Cook County Board!

The bottom line is that Illinois’ congressional delegation come January will consist of 13 Democrats and only 5 Republicans – a two-seat gain for “da Dems.”

Are Underwood and Casten (below) … 

RANDY HULTGREN AND Peter Roskam will be gone, replaced by Lauren Underwood and Sean Casten. Throughout levels of government, the Republican Party became irrelevant throughout the Chicago-area.

Yet for those anxious to wear the Republican-tinged glasses to view things, Tuesday was the night that Rep. Mike Bost, R-Ill., fought off Democrat Brendan Kelly and Rep. Rodney Davis beat Democrat Betsy Dirksen Londrigan.

Albeit the latter was by a narrow voter margin of 50.51 percent to 49.49 percent.

But Davis is a member of Congress from the Champaign-area representing a swath of central Illinois, while Bost is from around Carbondale and is the lone representative on Capitol Hill of that region of Southern Illinois that thinks of itself as “Egypt.”

… gain, or losses, for Illinois?

THE FACT THAT Roskam and Hultgren will be gone? I’m sure the ideologues will think it was more important to keep Davis and Bost.

Heck, let’s note that when President Donald Trump felt inclined to come to Illinois to campaign on behalf of Republicans in general, he went to Bost’s district for a political “fly-in” rally. The president himself said earlier this week that Roskam’s defeat was because the two-decade political incumbent “didn’t want the embrace” of presidential support.

Although I suspect if Roskam had actively touted himself as a “Trump Man,” he would have had his political clock cleaned by an even bigger margin than the 52.84 percent to 47.16 percent tally he actually lost by.

What caught my eye in looking at the congressional district map for Illinois is that there is one point right down the middle of the state where one could go straight through from the Wisconsin border all the way to where the Mississippi and Ohio rivers converge (a.k.a., Cairo) and never set foot in a Democratic-represented area.

THE SAME WOULD apply if you traveled from the east edge of Illinois around Danville to the far west around Quincy. Nothing but political “red” on the map.

Too easy for Illinoisans to ignore other party

You’d be passing in between the Chicago and Quad-Cities areas, and also skipping over the Illinois portions of the St. Louis area – which, if you think about it, are the portions of Illinois that comprise nearly three-quarters of the state’s population.

Which is how Democrats were able to gain Illinois House seats in suburban portions of Illinois to once-again have a 60 percent “veto-proof” supermajority, while allowing Republicans to feel like they still kept control of the rural parts of the state. We in Illinois may come out of this year’s election cycle thinking our region prevailed, even though we’re progressing to the point of becoming two separate regions. 

Let’s hope Gov.-elect J.B. Pritzker wasn’t just paying lip service when he said this week Chicago will “have no more special a role” than other Illinois cities, because having us work together as a state is how we’ll be capable of accomplishing anything of significance in the future for all our benefit.

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Trump motives: fighting antisemitism? Or won’t be shown up by Joe Biden!

President Donald Trump wound up proceeding with his scheduled campaign stop Saturday on behalf of Rep. Mike Bost, R-Ill., even though it had been contemplated to cancel the event at the Southern Illinois Airport in Murphysboro out of respect for the incident that morning where people were killed while attending Shabbat services at a synagogue in Pittsburgh.

TRUMP: Answering back before attacked?

Trump, the tough-talker who’s particularly vehement when communicating via Twitter, said he ventured to the land of Little Egypt (how the locals think of themselves) because, “we can’t let evil change our life and change our schedule.”

NOW THERE MAY be an element of truth that Trump wouldn’t want to cancel out on his appearance meant to bolster the re-election bid of Bost just because some bigot decided to bust into a synagogue armed with a rifle and pistols and start shooting the place up.

Some 11 were killed, others were wounded, and it is being called one of the bloodiest attacks on Jewish people in this country. Even Trump is calling it an “antisemitic attack at its worst.”

But I can’t help but think of more crass motivations in play for why Trump felt a flight on Air Force One to a remote part of Illinois was so important to make.

It will be just a few days before none-other-than Joe Biden, the former Vice President under the chief executive whose memory Trump would love to erase from the history books, will take place.

BOST: Beneficiary of Trump goodwill?

FOR BOST IS the guy being challenged by St. Clair County Brendan Kelly, who is the Democrat seeking to knock Bost from the House of Representatives, and one of some two-dozen Republican members of Congress whom Democrats think might be vulnerable on Election Day.

Personally, I’m inclined to think that Southern Illinois has changed significantly since the days when it was a working-class region (with many union member coal miners living there). Bost (whose moment of national prominence came back six years ago when he shouted, screamed and threw documents around during a session of the Illinois House of Representatives) may well be safe politically – particularly since that region is the lone part of Illinois where Trump is taken seriously.

HULTGREN: Will he get Trump help?

I have no doubt that Trump on Saturday was in a place where he felt much political love. Reinforcing his belief that he really does represent what this country is about.

Exactly the kind of sentiment that could be threatened if the perception got out there that Trump somehow got scared off, intimidated of sorts, into not showing up in Illinois.

JUST THINK OF how much trash talk Biden could spew come Wednesday when he appears on behalf of Kelly at a union hall in East St. Louis.

Which will come a few hours after Biden appears in suburban St. Charles to campaign for Lauren Underwood, who’s the nurse with political aspirations challenging Rep. Randy Hultgren, R-Ill., for his congressional seat.

He’s probably more vulnerable than is Bost, but you can be sure Biden will go out of his way on Halloween to bash both congress members by tying them as closely as possible in every possible way to Trump.

BIDEN: Dumping on Trump come Wednesday?

I don’t doubt Trump would not like the notion of Biden appearing in Illinois twice while Donald himself would not at all. It would probably seem to him like he’s surrendering to the former Vice President. And I suspect an unanswered taunt is the biggest evidence of political cowardice that exists in Trump’s mentality.

SO I SEE a touch of self-righteousness in Trump, feeling the need to answer back Saturday in anticipation of the Illinois-oriented insults he’s likely to get on Tuesday.

He may actually feel a touch of sympathy for Jewish people, although I suspect that’s largely because daughter Ivanka likely would read him the riot act in private if he didn’t (she did convert her religious faith when she married Jared Kushner).

If anything, I wonder if he’ll try to squeeze in a last-minute campaign stop this week in Kane County to benefit Hultgren. Anything is possible, I suppose.

One can talk about high-minded ideals as much as they want. But when it comes to political people, there’s usually a selfish motive behind anything they say or do – particularly when it comes to “the Donald.”

  -30-

How many Congressional candidates get help from Ben & Jerry, Sha Na Na?

I’m sure Lauren Underwood wants us to think she’s merely a health care professional whose interest in electoral politics is because she wants the federal government to do more to improve the quality of health care available to the general public.

UNDERWOOD: An Obama-era appointee

Which sounds nice. It sounds noble. Yet Underwood wouldn’t be getting prominent attention if she were just a nurse.

IN THIS YEAR of ’18 in the Age of Trump, a key strategy for Democratic political operatives is to try to boost the chances of every single Democrat running for office by reminding us just how abhorrent a majority of us find President Donald J. Trump to be.

The idea is to make us think that every single person of the GOP persuasion is nothing more than a Trump lackey, and that we need to dump every single one of ‘em from office.

Which means that even Republicans running in parts of the country that usually are fairly safe for GOPers are going to face some serious competition.

That includes Rep. Randy Hultgren, R-Ill., who typically would be considered safe in his northwestern suburban district. It’s not an area inclined to think of Democrats as being a legitimate choice. Heck, in the past 145 years, the area has only had five people of the Dem persuasion represent it.

YET IN THIS year, political operatives are putting their worth in Underwood, who if she wins would be the first woman ever to win that district – and also the youngest black woman (she’s 31) to win a Congressional seat anywhere in the United States this election cycle.

How seriously are people taking her candidacy?

She’s actually gaining some celebrity stunt-type attention that typically wouldn’t waste itself on a candidate who (in typical election years) would be regarded as longshots.

Come Wednesday, Jon Bauman (a.k.a., Bowzer from Sha Na Na of old) will do a formal endorsement of Underwood at an event in suburban Huntley. Bauman, who is now head of an organization called Social Security Works PAC, admits he’ll sing a few old tunes before talking with Underwood about healthcare issues related to senior citizens.

THIS ALSO COMES as the guys who created Ben & Jerry’s ice cream (a disclosure, I thoroughly adore both “Chunky Monkey” and “Cherry Garcia” flavors) say they’re creating specialty flavors to promote the political campaigns of seven would-be members of Congress who they think will be supportive of improved health care.

Underwood is amongst the seven.

Now I know many people will dismiss Bowser and Ben & Jerry as a batch of third-rate celebrity-type stunts. Nothing that should tell us that Underwood is a legitimate candidate.

Yet we have to admit, particularly when it comes to some of these lower-perception political races, such stunts can help draw attention. I wouldn’t be shocked to learn that Underwood gets a few votes from people who like ice cream or have memories of Sha Na Na.

AND IF YOU want to dismiss those things as being merely of interest to “old” people, consider that it could out to be the old people who take this election cycle most seriously.

So Hultgren vs. Underwood could turn out to be an election campaign of the 2018 cycle that gets a little bit of undue attention. Whether that will be sufficient to sway the vote away from this being a routine Republican political victory has yet to be determined.

Of course, I suspect Ben & Jerry’s will influence the outcome in one significant way. There’s no word on just what Lauren Underwood-type ice cream will taste like.

I suppose they could doom her campaign to political defeat if they wind up creating an unappealing concoction for her that makes voters think they’re better off with “two more years” of Hultgren.

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