Wednesday, January 28, 2015

When it comes to elections, didn’t we learn the first time around?

The presidential election cycle of 2016 is starting to take on the character of “Groundhog Day.”

Remember the film starring Bill Murray where he played a weather forecaster who had to keep reliving Groundhog Day until he managed to get it right (as in get the girl, played by Andie McDowell)?

WELL LOOKING AT the data available thus far for the election to determine who succeeds Barack Obama when he steps down from office in January of 2017 makes it seem like we’re going to relive all the past presidential elections of recent years.

We’re going to see which candidate finally “gets it right,” and which candidates are doomed to yet another presidential failure.

There are the Rasmussen Reports polls that came out in recent days that would indicate we’re going to see Hillary R. Clinton run for the Democrats against GOP nominee Mitt Romney.

The Democratic primary poll indicates that Hillary has this thing already wrapped up – even though she has yet to actually declare herself to be a candidate for president come next year!

WHILE ROMNEY HAS more support than any other Republican whose name is being bandied about for the GOP presidential nomination.

Although with Romney supposedly at only 24 percent support in that poll and 10 other people also getting support on the Republican side, it really feels like the 2012 presidential election cycle all over again.

Remember how each of the other candidates had a stint in which they were the favored candidate, until finally support convalesced behind Romney. Almost as though Republicans were desperate to find someone, anyone, who they could support instead of Mitt.

His presidential nomination that year ultimately felt like an act of desperation, rather than a sense of anybody that the public had any faith in to run the country. No wonder he wound up getting his clock cleaned, so to speak, by Obama.

WHILE HILLARY IS the overwhelming favorite of Democrats, what with 59 percent support and six other candidates all lagging way behind.

The sense of Hillary being inevitable, which was the attitude she tried to portray in 2008 until Obama himself managed to win enough primaries early on that her primary coronation turned into a brawl that she ultimately fell short at.

The part of that poll I find amusing is that Vice President Joe Biden only gets 6 percent support – even though he holds the title that usually enables a candidacy to be the pre-emptive favorite.

It seems his chances of success depend on Hillary deciding she doesn’t want to be bothered (which is always a possibility) with the ordeal of a campaign. Then, Biden can beat up on people like Mario Cuomo’s son – who it seems takes 2 percent presidential support at this time.

ALTHOUGH I CAN remember past election cycles in which the late New York governor would tease us beyond belief before deciding that he wasn’t about to run for governor, after all!

Will the younger Cuomo (also a New York governor) be just like his father?

It is interesting to see how the campaigns are likely to try to differentiate themselves this time around. The Washington Post published a pair of stories – Clinton may become the first woman to achieve the presidency, but her campaign backers are a collection of stodgy old white guys.

While Romney, the one-time governor of Massachusetts whose father was once governor of Michigan, has decided to relocate to a state with a more favorable political climate for a candidate who wants the votes of conservative ideologues.

HE’S NOW A native of Utah, which may work out well for him since his Mormon religious faith is not so exotic there. Perhaps he’ll claim he never really fit in with his Midwestern or New England roots.

Just as how the George Bushes (both H.W. and W.) would have us think they are Texas natives, rather than a pair of Ivy Leaguers at heart!


No comments: