Monday, June 22, 2009

Who will blink first?

Nothing about the current budgetary standoff emanating from the Statehouse in Springpatch surprises me.

I believe Gov. Pat Quinn when he says he’s not kidding about imposing severe cuts in funding to many state government programs – if the Legislature does not approve a significant hike in the state income tax.

I ALSO BELIEVE the legislators who are adamantly opposed to voting for anything resembling even a slight tax hike (and the increase proposed by Quinn is anything but slight) think they are legitimately looking out for the interests of the Illinois public.

After all, there are many people who seriously believe they get little to nothing from state government, yet resent the idea that they’re somehow supposed to pay a larger share of their income to the state to help fund programs that cover others.

And there is a degree to which these people are justified in such thought. After all, nobody is thrilled about looking at a paycheck only to see how large a share is diverted from their wallets to the various government entities that rely on such money to fund their operations.

So the bottom line is that I expect July 1 to come and go without a balanced budget being approved by the General Assembly and Gov. Quinn.

I EXPECT WE’LL be relying on that same budget the Legislature approved at the end of May – the one that only provides enough funding for a few months (with the thought being that the Legislature could craft another budgetary plan when they convene for the fall veto session to get through the rest of fiscal 2011).

That budget is ridiculous.

The actions that government officials likely will take in coming weeks will be extremely harsh to the Illinois public as a whole.

And everybody is determined to lay the blame on the other side in this political battle.

HOW THIS SITUATION will be resolved is something I honestly don’t have a clue about.

It is going to be a matter of who cries “Uncle” first. It’s almost reminiscent of 1991 – when the Democrat-run General Assembly stood up to Republican Gov. Jim Edgar and it wasn’t until something like 18 days into the new fiscal year when they came up with a budget.

That year was a situation where Edgar was determined to show how hard-headed he could be, while Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan, D-Chicago, acted as though he was trying to see just how far he could push the then-brand-new governor.

That year, it was Madigan who finally made a few compromises that enabled a balanced budget to get approved by the Illinois Legislature and signed into law by Edgar.

I HONESTLY THOUGHT back to that when I heard reports recently about Edgar saying he hoped the Legislature would make the compromises necessary for this situation to be resolved in a way that does not impose much suffering on the people of Illinois.

As Edgar put it, to allow for a political stalemate (the direction we’re headed for right now) would amount to “mismanagement” by Illinois government officials.

“We’ve had enough mismanagement in Springfield over the past few years,” Edgar told reporter-types recently.

In the end, it is going to come down to a matter of how much of a hit to the political ego officials are going to be willing to take.

QUINN IS NOT going to get that full income tax hike he proposed – the one that would produce enough revenue to maintain current government services in healthcare, education and all the other social services that too many conservative government officials want to deride as misguided and not as good as their proponents want to claim.

So I accept the reality that just about all government services are going to receive some cuts in funding. Everybody is going to take something of a hit.

But the legislators who think they’re being noble and idealistic by automatically voting “no” any time anything remotely resembling a tax increase also are going to have to make something resembling a compromise.

Something resembling a tax hike is going to have to be approved. I don’t know if it will be the income tax, or some other special fee that helps raise a significant level of new money for state government.

WHATEVER IT TURNS out to be, we’re going to need that 60 percent of legislators to vote on something this week or early next. That means Democrats who run the Senate and House of Representatives are going to have to make concessions to Republican legislators to get them on board.

I know some people will argue that Republicans have no obligation to do a thing to help produce a balanced budget on the grounds that it was Democratic ineptitude that prevented the state from having a budget in place by the May 30 end-of-session deadline.

That, however, reeks. If Republican legislators insist on playing such partisan political games, then they are going to be deserving of just as much criticism (if not more) than the level they are currently trying to dish out to Democrats for creating the current mess.

We’ll have to wait and see what happens when the General Assembly reconvenes come Tuesday.

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