Illinois
ought to keep by its leanings toward having a Democratic Party-leaning
government, although the Republicans will make every effort to try to claim
they have made inroads toward reducing that – no matter what really happens.
FOR
THE REALITY is that we in Illinois are more urban-leaning than the states where
there is the possibility of seats in the U.S. Senate shifting from Democratic
representation to Republican.
So
we’re not going to share in the sentiment that will occur in other parts of the
country that could literally give the conservative ideologues of our society
complete control of Congress – which Republican officials would then use to
make the final two years of Barack Obama’s presidency a living hell for his
supporters.
As
for Illinois, we’re likely to keep our member of the Senate as Richard Durbin.
The national question is more a matter of will we be a part of the new majority,
or a part of a minority that ideologues will go out of their way to ignore.
Then,
there’s the matter of our governor. By all rights, Gov. Pat Quinn ought to be
kicking the stuffing out of Bruce Rauner – or any other official who tried
challenging him as a Republican.
OUR
STATE’S GOP structure is so weak that Republicans couldn’t even find token
challengers to run against Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle or any
other county government officers.
To
the degree that there is any Illinois Republican Party these days, it is
because Rauner has pumped in so many millions of his own money to make it
appear that the one-time “Party of Lincoln” isn’t extinct.
So
can Rauner actually win the governor’s post – which Republicans would try to
claim means they have retaken control of state government, rather than just one
executive branch post that will have to contend with a hostile Democrat-led
Legislature.
If
I had to predict, I’d say that Quinn takes 49 percent of the vote, with Rauner
finishing with 48 percent and Libertarian Chad Grimm snapping up the remainder.
BUT
BEFORE ANYONE thinks I’m saying Grimm will cost Rauner the election, what I
actually believe is that most of those 3 percent for Grimm would be people who
otherwise would decide that neither major party candidate is worth their vote.
They would have sat it out.
I
do realize that I’m merely guessing, and that anything is possible come
Tuesday. We’re going to have to see who actually bothers to show up to vote.
Will
Rauner succeed in persuading a significant number of African-American voters to
sit this election out – rather than giving the Democrat the usual 90-percent
level of support?
Or
are those poll results published last week by the Chicago Sun-Times possibly
correct that Rauner’s attempts to make himself appear less conservative on
issues such as increasing the minimum wage and legitimizing gay marriage could
backfire because they are ticking off the rural residents who WANT a
conservative ideologue as governor on those issues?
WILL
THE DESIRE to dump Quinn be tampered by the fact that Rauner claims not to have
a social agenda – when the very voters he is counting on to back him want
exactly that? Will Quinn survive because of ideologue apathy?
Who
doesn’t vote is ultimately going to decide this particular election cycle.
It
is why I’m reluctant to say who will be the winner Tuesday night – other than
to say that Preckwinkle WILL be chosen to serve another four-year term in the
Cook County Board.
Now
as to whether she’ll keep the post, or give it up to run for Chicago mayor come
2015 – probably not. But I’m not about to put any bet down on that issue.
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