Lisa Madigan needs to make up her mind, but she’s going to take her time for 2010

Perhaps it is the advantage of starting out the year with a $3.5 million campaign fund – significantly larger than anyone else considering a political bid in the 2010 elections and more than 20 times larger than that of her most-likely opponent.

Lisa Madigan can take her time to make up her mind as to what elective office she wishes to seek come next year’s elections.

THE TWO-TERM ILLINOIS attorney general is only in her mid-40s. She has the potential for a significant political career ahead of her. And the fact that she, in theory, could crush just about any opponent makes it interesting.

Because a lot of how the ballot for next years’ elections will shape up will be determined by what, exactly, Madigan chooses to do with herself.

It has never been a secret that Madigan herself would like to be the first female to be elected governor of Illinois. In fact, it was long assumed she would make a bid for the Democratic Party’s nomination in 2010 because of the disgust level felt for Rod Blagojevich.

Any benefit he might have had due to two-term incumbency could have been overcome, it was felt by the Madigan camp.

BUT THERE WAS always the possibility of the U.S. Senate seat from Illinois – first because some people felt that Blagojevich would be conniving enough to give Lisa the “up and out” treatment (a “promotion” to Washington makes one irrelevant in many ways on the local scene) to get her out of his way.

And now that Blagojevich is gone and we have Pat Quinn seriously behaving like he thinks he has a chance to get the party’s nomination himself, there are those people who think Madigan might just take the Washington option so as not to stir up a partisan squabble within the Democratic Party.

Quinn may be a horrible political fundraiser and may be committing acts of political suicide in his attempt to fill the billion dollar gaps that exist in the state budget, but he is still the incumbent.

And Madigan’s father, long-time Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan, D-Chicago, remembers 1976 all too well. Democrats from Chicago so disgusted with then-Gov. Dan Walker put all their energy into defeating him. And they did.

BUT DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE Michael J. Howlett (who was the incumbent Illinois secretary of state at the time) wound up losing to “Big Jim” Thompson, thereby giving us what turned into a 26-year string of Republicans as governor that only came to an end with the disgust factor felt by many toward George Ryan.

Having the Blagojevich years come to an end by triggering another string of GOP governors is Mike Madigan’s worst nightmare. I could easily picture him advising his daughter to think carefully about causing a partisan fight in the primary.

Of course, Lisa is also the one who’s a Democrat because she has liberal views on many social issues, while father Michael is a Democrat because he sympathizes with organized labor and working people. The point is that they don’t agree on certain points, and she has shown a willingness in the past to put aside her father’s thoughts and think for herself.

So what will it be – governor or senator?

THERE’S A CERTAIN theoretical sense in which it would be wise to run for a post in Washington. She could always be the senator who later in life chooses to run for Illinois governor – if the post really matters that much to her. Like I wrote earlier, at age 45, she likely has time ahead of her to do many things.

But now, Madigan is spewing the same rhetoric often heard by our local political people. They don’t want to move to Washington (she’d have to maintain a D.C.-area residence, in addition to her Chicago home). Or at least that’s what she told WLS-TV earlier this week.

Madigan doesn’t want to do the back-and-forth between O’Hare and Reagan International airports. Washington (where she went to college) is a nice place to visit, but not to live. She has young children at this stage of her life, and doesn’t want to spend that much time away from them.

In fact, she’s throwing out the hints that she’d be more than willing to consider a third term as Illinois attorney general.

THE ONLY PROBLEM with that option is that with her campaign cash and the political mood, now is the time for Madigan to make some move up. If she thinks she can stay put for four more years, she could find all her advantages withering away – and she’d be stuck as attorney general for life.

Also, there are other political people who want to move up, and they are stuck waiting for Madigan to make up her mind before they can commit to running for U.S. Senate, Illinois governor or state attorney general.

They don’t have anywhere near Madigan’s campaign fund, so they can’t yet openly oppose her (unless they want to draw the wrath of the Illinois House speaker in their future political dealings).

So in this case, money buys Lisa Madigan time. But what also helps her is that I honestly believe Madigan is the one Democrat who is not going to have to deal with the “Blagojevich factor” that Republicans are banking so much upon in ’10.

GOP OFFICIALS ARE convinced that no matter how weak their political party is and how unknown their leading candidates are statewide, people will be so disgusted with Milorod that they will vote for anyone but a Democrat come the November general election.

Madigan with her youth, funds and (let’s face it) organizational help from her long-time politico father, could very well win regardless of anyone trying to imply she was just a Blagojevich lackey during the six years she served as attorney general to his governor.

And for those who will argue that the last Democratic governor was also someone who won because of his youth, funds and organizational help from his politico father(-in-law), I’d say that I have encountered both Madigan and Blagojevich, and Rod, he’s no Lisa Madigan.

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EDITOR’S NOTE: She may have attended Georgetown University and enjoys an occasional visit (http://abclocal.go.com/wls/story?section=news/politics&id=6811551), but Lisa Madigan isn’t all that enthused about the idea of living again in the District of Columbia.

Former Gov. Jim Edgar’s press secretary (http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/chi-oped0511lawrence_mdmay11,0,6193856.story) wonders how much Mike Madigan will use his position to prevent Pat Quinn from looking good at the expense of his daughter’s political aspirations.